Trump renames New Mexico to New America by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN1 level openResearch 8d ago
December 31 8%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
1 level open · in level order
1 open level, in level order.
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · December 31
3 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 359–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Yes if by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET Trump issues a formal executive order, memorandum, proclamation or signed bill, or otherwise formally directs the federal government (including via the Board on Geographic Names), to rename New Mexico to 'New America' or any name including 'America'. Posts and statements of support alone do not count.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, presidential memorandum, or proclamation, signs any bill into law, or otherwise formally directs the federal government to rename New Mexico to "New America" or any other name including "America" by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A formal Trump administration directive to rename New Mexico, including through the U.S. Board on Geographic Names, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "rename" includes directing the federal government to use the new name when referring to the state, regardless of whether the state's legal name is changed. Statements, social media posts, or expressions of support for renaming New Mexico will not qualify unless accompanied by a qualifying formal action or directive. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
