MarketsBusiness
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN8 optionsResearch 4d ago
3.5–3.9% 51%3.0–3.4% 34%4.0-4.4% 9%<1.0% 4%
8 options
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
8 options trading. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
<1.0%4%1%−3
1.0–1.4%2%1%−1
1.5–1.9%2%1%−1
2.0–2.4%2%1%−1
2.5–2.9%3%3%0
3.0–3.4%34%32%−2
+2 more options
AI analysts' average · 3.5–3.9%
50%
1 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 394–544 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if the unadjusted CPI percentage change over the 12 months ending December 2026 falls within 3.5–3.9%, inclusive of both stated endpoints, using the one-decimal 'CPI 12-month rate (%)' in the ONS monthly report's Consumer price inflation rates table; otherwise No. Resolution occurs upon publication, currently scheduled January 20, 2027; if December data has not been released by the scheduled release date for January's data, the last available month's figure is used.
- Resolution criteria
- This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
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