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University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - November 2026
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN7 optionsResearch 17h ago
46.0 to 48.9 36%43.0 to 45.9 25%49.0 to 51.9 18%<40.0 5%
7 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
7 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
<40.05%3%−2
40.0 to 42.92%4%+2
43.0 to 45.925%24%−1
46.0 to 48.936%37%+1
49.0 to 51.918%20%+2
52.0 to 54.92%3%+1
+1 more option
AI analysts' average · 46.0 to 48.9
37%
1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Rules
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- In plain English
- 46.0 to 48.9 resolves Yes if the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for November 2026 falls in that bracket, to one decimal place, as published in the Surveys of Consumers final release (data.sca.isr.umich.edu, scheduled for November 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). Otherwise it resolves No. Preliminary results do not count. If the final figure is not released on schedule, the market can stay open until the next scheduled report's release time. If there is still no release by the…
- Resolution criteria
- This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for November 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for November 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for November 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on November 20, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
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