MarketsPolitics
VA-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN2 optionsResearch 56m ago
John McGuire (R) 66%Tom Perriello (D) 34%
2 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
2 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
John McGuire (R)66%70%+4
Tom Perriello (D)34%27%−7
AI analysts' average · John McGuire (R)
70%
4 pts above the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Tom Perriello (D)Yes SnowLover7SnowLover7: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 SnowLover7SnowLover7: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1tunatylertunatyler: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1GaditimaGaditima: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 · 2
John McGuire (R)Yes anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No SnowLover7SnowLover7: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1GaditimaGaditima: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 SnowLover7SnowLover7: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1aenews2aenews2: Tier 2, #41 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 · 2
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- John McGuire (R)'s market resolves Yes if the candidate of that party wins the VA-05 U.S. House seat in the November 3, 2026 election, and No otherwise. The winner is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, the official results reported by the FEC decide.
- Watch out
- The market resolves on the party of the winning candidate. It does not resolve on the candidate's name, and independent Cooke Costa Harvey's party is determined by ballot listing or caucus intent.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
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