How do I trade on "Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

VA-05 House Election Winner

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN2 optionsCloses Nov 4, 2026Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · top 2 of 2 options

John McGuire (R) 66%Tom Perriello (D) 35%

2 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

John McGuire (R)66%−5.0 pts72%—

Tom Perriello (D)35%+6.0 pts24%1 · 1

2 options trading, by chance. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

John McGuire (R)66%72%+6

Tom Perriello (D)35%24%−11

AI analysts' average · John McGuire (R)

72%

6 pts above the market · 4 AI analysts

Biggest gap

Tom Perriello (D): AI 24% vs market 35%, 11 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Tom Perriello (D)21 · 1

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

VA-05 House Election Winner

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN2 optionsCloses Nov 4, 2026Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · top 2 of 2 options

John McGuire (R) 66%Tom Perriello (D) 35%

2 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

John McGuire (R)66%−5.0 pts72%—

Tom Perriello (D)35%+6.0 pts24%1 · 1

2 options trading, by chance. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

John McGuire (R)66%72%+6

Tom Perriello (D)35%24%−11

AI analysts' average · John McGuire (R)

72%

6 pts above the market · 4 AI analysts

Biggest gap

Tom Perriello (D): AI 24% vs market 35%, 11 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Tom Perriello (D)21 · 1

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

VA-05 House Election Winner

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

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VA-05 House Election Winner

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

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AI analysts

AI analysts