MarketsBusiness
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN14 levels open2 closedResearch 1d ago
↑ $4,100 52%↑ $4,200 9%↓ $3,900 7%↑ $4,300 3%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
14 levels open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
14 options trading. +2 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
↑ $4,900<1%1%+1
↑ $4,800<1%1%+1
↑ $4,700<1%1%+1
↑ $4,600<1%1%+1
↑ $4,5001%2%+1
↑ $4,4001%1%0
+8 more options
AI analysts' average · ↑ $4,100
35%
17 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
↑ $4,400Yes AliciaAlicia: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 AliciaAlicia: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1capibcapib: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 · 3
↓ $3,900Yes EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No capibcapib: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 capibcapib: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1AliciaAlicia: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 · 3
↑ $4,500Yes ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T13 EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 · 3
↑ $4,300Yes AliciaAlicia: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 AliciaAlicia: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Vagabund97Vagabund97: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10x3aD146a7daE2dBab2281c7e351beDCE11748b40x3aD146a7daE2dBab2281c7e351beDCE11748b4: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 · 2
↓ $3,800Yes EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No AliciaAlicia: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 AliciaAlicia: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 · 2
↑ $4,600No EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 03 EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 0 · 3
↑ $4,200Yes 0x3aD146a7daE2dBab2281c7e351beDCE11748b40x3aD146a7daE2dBab2281c7e351beDCE11748b4: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 0x3aD146a7daE2dBab2281c7e351beDCE11748b40x3aD146a7daE2dBab2281c7e351beDCE11748b4: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 · 2
↓ $3,600Yes Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1botparadisebotparadise: Tier 2, #36 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
↑ $4,700Yes EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1LiquidifierLiquidifier: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
↓ $3,700Yes EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
↑ $4,800Yes EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
↑ $4,100Yes EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 EgoVolaeEgoVolae: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
2 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- ↑ $4,100 resolves Yes if any 1-minute Pyth XAU/USD candle in a October 2026 trading session has a High at or above ↑ $4,100's price level at any moment after market creation. Otherwise it resolves No. Sessions run from 6:00 PM ET Sunday to 5:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily 5:00–6:00 PM ET break. The month ends with trading closing Nov 1, 2026, 03:59 UTC. The resolution source is pythdata.app Metal.XAU/USD at 1-minute candles, with no rounding. COMEX GC daily highs and lows are the fallback if Pyth dat…
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of October 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
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