MarketsBusiness
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN9 levels openResearch 11h ago
↓ $3,500 13%↑ $5,000 7%↓ $3,000 3%↓ $2,500 3%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
9 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
9 open levels, in level order. +2 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
↑ $15,0001%1%0
↑ $12,0001%1%0
↑ $10,0001%1%0
↑ $8,0002%1%−1
↑ $6,0003%2%−1
↑ $5,0007%6%−1
+3 more options
AI analysts' average · ↓ $3,500
9%
4 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
↑ $5,000Yes 131071131071: Tier 2, #41 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 131071131071: Tier 2, #41 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T24 ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 · 4
↓ $3,500Yes ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 03 · 0
↑ $6,000No Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1LiquidifierLiquidifier: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
↑ $15,000No ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
↑ $12,000No ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
↑ $10,000No ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
↑ $8,000No ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 ng6000ng6000: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
↓ $3,000Yes Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
1 option: no ranked trader holds it
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if, on any trading day up to the final trading day of December 2026, the official CME settlement price of the Active Month Gold (GC) futures contract is at or below $3,500 (a dip). Otherwise No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market’s creation will not be considered. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.
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