How do I trade on "Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN19 levels openCloses Jul 1, 2027Research 3d ago

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Tom Holland as Spider-Man 55%Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez 54%Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan 53%Brie Larson as Captain Marvel 50%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

19 levels open · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man92%−0.4 pts90%1 · 0

Hugh Jackman as Wolverine91%+0.5 pts92%none

Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange88%+1.0 pts85%1 · 0

Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool88%—85%none

Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau83%+0.5 pts72%none

Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop75%−4.0 pts65%none

Benedict Wong as Wong74%—65%none

Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel72%+0.5 pts62%none

Mark Ruffalo as Hulk69%+1.5 pts62%1 · 0

Elizabeth Olsen as Scarlet Witch63%+2.0 pts55%none

Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts63%+0.5 pts48%none

Tom Holland as Spider-Man55%+9.5 pts50%none

Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez54%−2.0 pts42%none

Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan53%−1.0 pts35%none

Brie Larson as Captain Marvel50%−1.0 pts52%1 · 0

Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man33%+6.0 pts25%none

Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine24%+0.5 pts18%none

Halle Berry as Storm13%−4.0 pts8%none

Jonathan Majors as Kang8%−0.7 pts3%none

19 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

1 AI analyst · each gives every option a chance · updated 3d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man92%90%−2

Hugh Jackman as Wolverine91%92%+1

Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange88%85%−3

Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool88%85%−3

Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau83%72%−11

Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop75%65%−10

+13 more options

AI analysts' average · Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man

90%

2 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

12h
The Weird Reason Marvel Fans Think Deadpool Will Appear in Avengers: Doomsday
Cinemablend
1d
'Avengers: Doomsday': Trailers, tickets, release date and 'Endgame: Encore' details
ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
3d
5 Avengers: Doomsday Theories So Good Marvel Needs To Make Them MCU Canon
Comic Book Resources
3d
Why Marvel is keeping Avengers: Doomsday under wraps despite growing fan curiosity and backlash over its l
The Economic Times
4d
In 1995, Tobey Maguire mysteriously disappeared from a cult 1995 movie: “I remember seeing him”
Far Out Magazine

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's movie traders by 3-month profit · updated 23h ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

Tobey Maguire as Spider-ManYes Red781RuM T11 Red781RuM T101 · 0

Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor StrangeYes Red781RuM T11 Red781RuM T101 · 0

Mark Ruffalo as HulkYes Red781RuM T11 Red781RuM T101 · 0

Brie Larson as Captain MarvelYes Red781RuM T11 Red781RuM T101 · 0

15 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 19 options

Resolves Yes if Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man appears in Avengers: Doomsday (scheduled for December 18, 2026). It resolves on an announcement of casting, even if the film is delayed or cancelled. If no casting is announced, it resolves on footage of the domestic theatrical cut. Being among the cast for the character is enough if several people are cast. If no casting is announced and the film is cancelled or not released by June 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, it resolves No. Sources are official Marvel or…Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: Resolves Yes if Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man appears in Avengers: Doomsday (scheduled for December 18, 2026). It resolves on an announcement of casting, even if the film is delayed or cancelled. If no casting is announced, it resolves on footage of the domestic theatrical cut. Being among the cast for the character is enough if several people are cast. If no casting is announced and the film is cancelled or not released by June 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, it resolves No. Sources are official Marvel or…
Resolution criteria: Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor playing the listed character appears in Avengers: Doomsday. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve upon announcement of casting, regardless of if the film is delayed, cancelled, or otherwise fails to be released. If no casting is announced, this market will resolve upon footage of the domestic theatrical cut of the film. If multiple people are cast for the same role, the listed individual being among the cast list for the relevant character will be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. If no casting is announced and Avengers: Doomsday is definitively cancelled or fails to be released by June 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., the domestic theatrical cut of Avengers: Doomsday, or a consensus of credible reporting.

How markets resolve