MarketsGeopolitics
Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Last trade · 7m agoPolymarket 24h vol $12.2K
Syria 46%Iran 20%Egypt 37%Qatar 28%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
16 levels openby chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.AI analystsBuy
SyriaNo smart money46%25%
EgyptNo smart money37%30%
QatarNo smart money28%
JordanNo smart money23%
KuwaitNo smart money22%20%
BahrainNo smart money21%
IranNo smart money20%5%
MoroccoNo smart money20%
SomaliaNo smart money18%
YemenNo smart money17%
AlgeriaNo smart money14%
SudanNo smart money12%
United Arab EmiratesNo smart money11%
IraqNo smart money11%
OmanNo smart money10%
LebanonNo smart money8%
16 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Syria46%25%−21
Egypt37%30%−7
Qatar28%
Jordan23%
Kuwait22%20%−2
Bahrain21%
+10 more options
AI analysts' average · Syria
25%
21 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Your forecast on Syria
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Syria resolves Yes if it formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. That means signing the Agreement or an accession instrument that makes it a party, or an official announcement by the country and/or existing parties that it has become a party. Statements of intent, invitations, negotiations, parliamentary approval or separate defence deals do not count. Otherwise No.
- Watch out
- Only formal accession counts: signing the Agreement or an accession instrument, or an official announcement that the country has become a party. Invitations, negotiations, parliamentary authorization or other defence deals do not.
- Resolution criteria
- The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs: - the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or - the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory. Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.