How do I trade on "Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN12 levels openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 5d ago

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Pakistan 6%Tunisia 6%Syria 4%Saudi Arabia 4%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

12 levels open · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Pakistan6%−0.2 pts3%none

Tunisia6%—2%none

Syria4%—4%0 · 1

Saudi Arabia4%—2%none

Cuba3%—1%none

North Korea3%—1%none

Iran3%−0.1 pts2%none

Kuwait3%+0.1 pts2%none

Qatar3%—2%none

Malaysia3%+0.1 pts1%none

Afghanistan2%−0.3 pts1%none

Bangladesh1%−0.2 pts1%none

12 options trading, by chance. +4 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

3 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 5d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Pakistan6%3%−3

Tunisia6%2%−4

Syria4%4%0

Saudi Arabia4%2%−2

Cuba3%1%−2

North Korea3%1%−2

+6 more options

AI analysts' average · Pakistan

3 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

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Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

SyriaNo SnapElectionAvoider T201 SnapElectionAvoider T20 · 1

11 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 12 options

Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: Yes only if Pakistan's government formally recognizes the State of Israel between market creation and Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Announcements of intent don't count. Otherwise No.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How markets resolve