MarketsGeopolitics
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $1.9K
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2027 22%January 2027 20%February 2027 20%August 2027 18%
13 optionsin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
January 2027No smart money20%
February 2027No smart money20%
March 2027No smart money14%
April 2027No smart money9%
May 2027No smart money14%
June 2027No smart money6%
July 2027No smart money17%
August 2027No smart money18%
September 2027No smart money7%
October 2027No smart money10%
November 2027No smart money8%
December 2027No smart money14%
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2027No smart money22%
13 open levels, in level order.
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
13 options: no ranked trader holds them
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the calendar month containing the first date from January 1, 2027 to December 31, 2027 for which the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least 60. If no such date occurs, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2027”. IMF PortWatch typically publishes a rounded 7-day moving average in the chart on its chokepoint page and an unrounded figure in its downloadable files. The figure shown in the chart will be used for settlement. If the chart is unavailable, the downloadable figure, rounded to the nearest whole number, will be used. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a qualifying 7-day moving average, or once IMF PortWatch has published data for every date in the period with no qualifying 7-day moving average. Revisions made after that point will not be considered, unless subject to the data integrity clause below. If any data is still unpublished 14 calendar days after the period’s final date, this market will resolve on the most recent data published at that time. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the Transit Calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.