MarketsPolitics
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN1 optionResearch 8h ago
Democratic Party 92%
1 option · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 option trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Democratic Party92%90%−2
AI analysts' average · Democratic Party
90%
2 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 1 price closer, on 312–544 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Democratic PartyYes TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T17 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1almost-neveralmost-never: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T17 · 1
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Democratic Party wins control of the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm election, meaning a majority of voting seats. If no party has a majority, control goes to the party of the first Speaker elected by the new Congress. Seats go to the party the member was elected under. Independents count toward the party they caucus with or announce they will caucus with, with a deadline of Jan 4, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Runoff results decide runoff seats. Sources are state election authorities, Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting. Only one party can resolve Yes. Trading ends 2…
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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