MarketsPolitics
Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN17 levels open2 closedResearch 3d ago
Benjamin Netanyahu 73%Hakeem Jeffries 28%Zohran Mamdani 15%Stephen Colbert 15%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
17 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
2 closed levels
17 options trading, by chance. +6 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Benjamin Netanyahu73%9%−64
Hakeem Jeffries28%38%+10
Zohran Mamdani15%13%−2
Stephen Colbert15%12%−3
Mark Carney15%25%+10
Candace Owens12%12%0
+11 more options
AI analysts' average · Benjamin Netanyahu
9%
64 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 360–394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Benjamin Netanyahu resolves Yes if Donald Trump makes any public statement (written, verbal or recorded, made publicly, published by him, or on the record to media) that insults Benjamin Netanyahu, between market creation and October 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise it resolves No. An insult mocks, degrades or disparages the person personally or professionally: clearly insulting traits (weak, stupid, a failure), insulting nicknames, other derogatory language, or the negative form of a positive trait ('…
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sign in to comment
