Mark Rutte 47%Ursula von der Leyen 44%António Guterres 15%Emmanuel Macron 11%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
7 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
3 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 6d ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Mark Rutte47%32%−15
Ursula von der Leyen44%63%+19
António Guterres15%11%−4
Emmanuel Macron11%9%−2
Mark Carney9%7%−2
JD Vance6%4%−2
+1 more option
AI analysts' average · Mark Rutte
32%
15 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 1 price closer, on 373–572 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
Polymarket's geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 55m ago
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Mark RutteYessmellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T22smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T2·CattailCattail: Tier 2, #47 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T202 · 0
Ursula von der LeyenYessmellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T22smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T2·CattailCattail: Tier 2, #47 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T202 · 0
Emmanuel MacronYesEiaEia: Tier 2, #50 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T2·NoCattailCattail: Tier 2, #47 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T21EiaEia: Tier 2, #50 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T21CattailCattail: Tier 2, #47 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T21 · 1
Mark CarneyNoCattailCattail: Tier 2, #47 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T201CattailCattail: Tier 2, #47 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T20 · 1
JD VanceNosmellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T201smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T20 · 1
Donald TrumpNosmellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T201smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T20 · 1
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 7 options
Resolves Yes if Mark Rutte physically enters Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Entering Ukrainian airspace alone does not count. A consensus of credible reporting decides.Show rulesHide rules
In plain English
Resolves Yes if Mark Rutte physically enters Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Entering Ukrainian airspace alone does not count. A consensus of credible reporting decides.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
