How do I trade on "Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN4 optionsCloses Nov 5, 2026Research 8d ago

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 4 options

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 67%No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 32%Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate 1%Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate <1%

4 options · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate67%+0.3 pts63%none

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate32%+0.3 pts33%1 · 0

Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate1%−0.1 pts1%none

Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate<1%−0.4 pts2%0 · 1

4 options trading, by chance.

AI analysts

3 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 8d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate67%63%−4

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate32%33%+1

Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate1%1%0

Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate<1%2%+1

AI analysts' average · No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate

63%

4 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

2d
Senate Democrats to investigate Trump’s oil profits amid rising gas prices
Crypto Briefing
4d
Obama unloads on Trump while stumping for Democrats ahead of midterms
WTVB
5d
'Veto, Veto, Veto...': Trump Hints At Massive 'Unrest' If Democrats Win Midterms
The Times of India
5d
Trump claims US controls Strait of Hormuz, attacks Democrats ahead of midterms
YouTube

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R SenateYes anoin123 T11 anoin123 T101 · 0

Agreement + Oil < $80; D SenateNo JokerTheClown T201 JokerTheClown T20 · 1

2 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 4 options

Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: The rules are in an external PDF that I did not read. From the title, the market appears to be a joint outcome: no Hormuz agreement, or oil at least $80, AND Democrats win the Senate in the Nov 2026 elections. Check the PDF for the exact definitions and dates.
Resolution criteria: The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf

How markets resolve