MarketsEconomy
What will gas hit the week of November 9?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $581.2
↑ $4.08 50%↑ $4.06 50%↑ $4.02 50%↓ $3.88 50%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
13 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
↑ $4.14No smart money<1%
↑ $4.12No smart money2%
↑ $4.10No smart money3%
↑ $4.08No smart money50%
↑ $4.06No smart money50%
↑ $4.04No smart money38%
↑ $4.02No smart money50%
↓ $3.96No smart money>99%
↓ $3.94No smart money94%
↓ $3.92No smart money96%
↓ $3.90No smart money80%
↓ $3.88No smart money50%
↓ $3.86No smart money50%
13 open levels, in level order.
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OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
13 options: no ranked trader holds them
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Rules
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- In plain English
- ↑ $4.14 resolves Yes if the AAA US national average price for regular gasoline (the 'Current Avg.' row of the 'National Average Gas Prices' table at gasprices.aaa.com), as observed for any date from Monday, November 9, 2026 through Sunday, November 15, 2026, is at or above the stated price for ↑ (High) options, or at or below it for ↓ (Low) options. Otherwise it resolves No.
- Watch out
- Each date's price is the 'Current Avg.' shown at 10:00 AM ET only if the 'Price as of' date is that day and 'Yesterday Avg.' is the prior day's price. Otherwise the first time both are met is used. The price is used unrounded, to four decimals, and any single day in the week can trigger Yes.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA is equal to or above the specified price for options marked ↑ (High), or equal to or below the specified price for options marked ↓ (Low), for any date from Monday, November 9, 2026 through Sunday, November 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market resolves based on the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ in the "National Average Gas Prices" table under the "Regular" column and the "Current Avg." row. Each date's price is the price displayed at 10:00 AM ET on that date, provided that at that time the "Price as of" date shown on the webpage is that date and the "Yesterday Avg." row in the same column shows the previous date's price. If either condition is not met at 10:00 AM ET, the price will be observed at the first time on that date at which both are met; if both are not met by 11:59 PM ET on that date, the price displayed in the table at that time will be used. If AAA does not display the US national average price of regular gasoline in the table at the time of observation, the price displayed elsewhere on the webpage will be used. If AAA displays no US national average price of regular gasoline on the specified webpage at any time on one or more dates within the specified week, this market will resolve based on the prices observed for the remaining dates. The resolution source for this market will be the American Automobile Association (AAA) (https://gasprices.aaa.com/). Note: AAA currently publishes gas prices to four decimal places (e.g., $4.3718). The price will be used as published, without rounding.