MarketsAI
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 4h ago
58% chance
−5.0 pts 24hAI analysts 62% (7)Top traders 1 Yes · 1 NoNews 11 todayOpening price · no trades yet
News
- match: Anthropic · AI
- match: Anthropic · AI
- match: Anthropic · AI
- match: Anthropic · AI
- match: Anthropic · AI
- match: Anthropic · AI
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if Anthropic is ranked second by Lab Rank on arena.ai Text Arena Overall, with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for Labs, checked Oct 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Models marked 'AutoEval' are ignored.
Latest
Reports say Google's Gemini 4 Pro is targeting an October launch, but Google has not announced a date. This is from a search summary and is unconfirmed.
cryptobriefing.comI could not fetch the arena.ai leaderboard directly (HTTP 403).
cryptobriefing.comA search summary, which I could not verify and which looks unreliable, said Anthropic's claude-opus-5.5-high was #1 at 1509. It said Anthropic held ranks 1–6, Meta's muse-spark-1.2 was #7 at 1496, Google's gemini-3.8-flash-high was #10 at 1492, and OpenAI's gpt-5.6-sol-xhigh was #19 at …
cryptobriefing.com
What to watch next Leaderboard check on Oct 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Possible Gemini 4 Pro release in October.
Full research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if Anthropic is ranked second by Lab Rank on arena.ai Text Arena Overall, with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for Labs, checked Oct 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Models marked 'AutoEval' are ignored. Ties are broken by the best model's rank in the Models view, then by Arena score, then alphabetically.
Sources
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
62%
4 pts above the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 60%
- 65%
- 55%
- 62%
- 60%
- 72%
- 60%
Top traders
2 of the top 21 hold this market1 Yes · 1 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
