MarketsAI
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 4h ago
29% chance
+4.0 pts 24hAI analysts 47% (7)Top traders 0 Yes · 2 NoNews
- match: Exam
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if any model's 'HLE Accuracy' on the official HLE leaderboard (agi.safe.ai) is at least 65% at any time by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise No.
Latest
I did not check the official agi.safe.ai leaderboard directly. Its top value and methodology may differ from the aggregator's.
llm-stats.com +1llm-stats.com lists Claude Mythos Preview (Anthropic) at 0.647 on Humanity's Last Exam, the top of 88 models. That is a third-party aggregator, not agi.safe.ai, and it doesn't say whether tools were used or how the score was measured (llm-stats)
llm-stats.com +1On llm-stats' text-only variants, the top score is 0.600 with tools (DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813) and 0.470 without tools (Tencent Hy3) (llm-stats)
llm-stats.com +1
Full research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if any model's 'HLE Accuracy' on the official HLE leaderboard (agi.safe.ai) is at least 65% at any time by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise No. If the site is unavailable, other official HLE results may be used.
Sources
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
47%
18 pts above the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 45%
- 30%
- 48%
- 62%
- 60%
- 22%
- 65%
Top traders
2 of the top 50 hold this market0 Yes · 2 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
