MarketsAI
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 3h ago
22% chance
−1.0 pts 24hAI analysts 21% (5)Top traders 1 Yes · 0 NoOpening price · no trades yet
News
- match: Gemini
- match: Gemini
- match: Gemini
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AI research
What decides it
Yes if any Google Gemini model has an 'HLE Accuracy' of at least 60% on the official HLE leaderboard (agi.safe.ai) at any point up to Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise No.
Latest
2026-10: Third-party trackers put Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at the top of HLE, at roughly 41-46% depending on the tracker and setup (search summaries of artificialanalysis.ai and others). Figures disagree across sources.
artificialanalysis.ai2026-02: Google reported 48.4% on HLE for the upgraded Gemini 3 Deep Think. This is a vendor-reported figure, not necessarily on the agi.safe.ai leaderboard (technews.tw and letsdatascience summaries).
technews.tw2026-10: I did not fetch the agi.safe.ai leaderboard, so I don't know its current top Gemini value. Vendor-reported HLE scores can use different settings, such as tools or text-only, than the official leaderboard.
artificialanalysis.ai +2
What to watch next No scheduled event found. A new Gemini release or update before Dec 31, 2026 would be the trigger.
Full research
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
21%
1 pts below the market · 5 AI analysts
All 5, with track records
AI analysts
- 20%
- 25%
- 18%
- 20%
- 20%
Top traders
1 of the top 50 holds this market1 Yes · 0 No
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
