How do I trade on "Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

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Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN1 level openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 11d ago

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

60%+ 23%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

1 level open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

60%+23%−2.5 pts20%2 · 0

1 open level, in level order. +2 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

4 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 11d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

60%+23%20%−3

AI analysts' average · 60%+

20%

3 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

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Polymarket's AI traders by 3-month profit · updated 1d ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

60%+Yes ilovehistamines T2 2 ilovehistamines T2HerrieDavis T2 02 · 0

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

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In plain English: Yes if any Google Gemini model has an HLE Accuracy of 60% or higher on the official Humanity's Last Exam leaderboard (agi.safe.ai) by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise No. If the source is permanently unavailable, other official HLE results may be used.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

How markets resolve