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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
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OPENResearch 2h ago
77% chance
+11.0 pts 24hAI analysts 75% (7)Top traders 16 Yes · 9 NoNews
- match: Fed · meeting · FOMC
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AI research
What decides it
Yes if the FOMC statement after the Oct 27-28 meeting leaves the upper bound of the federal funds target range unchanged from its pre-meeting level of 4.00% (range 3.75%-4.00% since Sep 17). Any hike or cut is No; an odd-sized move is rounded up to 25 bps.
Latest
The FOMC calendar lists the meeting as Oct 27-28; the year's last meeting, with projections, is Dec 8-9.
www.federalreserve.govBLS: the September CPI rose 0.6 percent (seasonally adjusted) and 3.7 percent over 12 months; the index less food and energy rose 0.3 percent and 2.6 percent over the year.
www.bls.govSeptember minutes: "most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate" "would likely be appropriate by year end"; decisions "would depend on incoming information".
www.federalreserve.gov
Case for Yes
The minutes place another increase "by year end", not specifically in October, and the Dec 8-9 meeting remains; September payrolls rose only 29,000 and core CPI was up 2.6% on the year.
Case for No
The Fed hiked in September, saying inflation "remains elevated"; most participants saw another increase as likely appropriate by year end, the median projection sits above the current range, and September CPI rose 0.6% on the month.
What to watch next The FOMC statement on Oct 28 after the Oct 27-28 meeting; before it, Fed officials' public remarks and any further data releases.
Full research
What decides it
Yes if the FOMC statement after the Oct 27-28 meeting leaves the upper bound of the federal funds target range unchanged from its pre-meeting level of 4.00% (range 3.75%-4.00% since Sep 17). Any hike or cut is No; an odd-sized move is rounded up to 25 bps. If no statement is released by the end of the next scheduled meeting, it resolves to No change. The statement on Oct 28 settles it.
Earlier
BLS: nonfarm payrolls (+29,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) "changed little in September".
www.bls.govThe Fed's rate-change table shows the 25 bp increase to 3.75-4.00 as the only change of 2026, following a Dec 11, 2025 cut to 3.50-3.75.
www.federalreserve.govThe FOMC voted 12-0 to "raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent", saying "Inflation remains elevated."
www.federalreserve.govThe September projections show a median federal funds rate of 4.1 for end-2026, above the 3.875 midpoint of the current range.
www.federalreserve.gov
Sources
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, September 16, 2026 · www.federalreserve.gov
- Open Market Operations - Federal Reserve · www.federalreserve.gov
- Minutes of the FOMC, September 15-16, 2026 · www.federalreserve.gov
- Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026 · www.federalreserve.gov
- The Employment Situation - September 2026 (BLS) · www.bls.gov
- Consumer Price Index - September 2026 (BLS) · www.bls.gov
- Meeting calendars and information - FOMC · www.federalreserve.gov
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
75%
2 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 75%
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Top traders
25 of the top 50 hold this market16 Yes · 9 No
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
