MarketsTech
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
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OPENResearch 2h ago
85% chance
+1.1 pts 24hAI analysts 84% (2)Top traders 3 Yes · 0 NoNews 40 todayNews
- match: NVIDIA
- match: NVIDIA
- match: NVIDIA
- match: NVIDIA
- match: NVIDIA
- match: NVIDIA
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AI research
What decides it
Resolves to the world's largest company by market cap "as of market close" on Oct 31, 2026, per a consensus of credible reporting. Trap: Oct 31, 2026 is a Saturday, so no U.S.
Latest
companiesmarketcap.com ranks NVIDIA first at $5.343T and Apple second at $5.005T, ahead of Alphabet ($4.202T) and Microsoft ($3.962T).
companiesmarketcap.comApple said it will report fiscal Q4 2026 results on Monday, Nov 2, 2026, after the Oct 31 date.
www.mactrast.comThe site's history shows NVIDIA at $5.649T vs Apple at $4.870T at its weekly point dated Oct 3, a gap of about 16%; by Oct 14 the gap was about 6.8%.
companiesmarketcap.com +1
Case for Yes
NVIDIA ranked first on Oct 14 at $5.343T, about $338B (6.8%) above Apple, and led Apple at every weekly point from Aug 29 to Oct 14 in the companiesmarketcap history. Apple's next earnings report falls after the date (Nov 2).
Case for No
The gap narrowed from about 16% (Oct 3 point) to 6.8% on Oct 14 as NVIDIA fell from $5.649T to $5.343T while Apple rose. Apple briefly passed Nvidia in late July 2026 after a 5% Nvidia drop, so the lead has changed hands this year.
What to watch next Daily closing market caps of NVIDIA and Apple through Friday Oct 30, the last U.S. session before the Saturday date, and how reporting treats the weekend date.
Full research
What decides it
Resolves to the world's largest company by market cap "as of market close" on Oct 31, 2026, per a consensus of credible reporting. Trap: Oct 31, 2026 is a Saturday, so no U.S. market closes that day; the rule does not say which close applies, and the last regular session before it is Friday Oct 30. Market-cap figures differ by source and share count, so a narrow gap could be reported differently.
Earlier
In the same history NVIDIA's market cap exceeded Apple's at every weekly point from Aug 29 through Oct 14, 2026.
companiesmarketcap.com +1MacTech reported Apple's market cap reached $4.95 trillion, making it the largest company by total valuation for the first time since May 2025, after Nvidia stock dropped 5% in the prior session.
www.mactech.com
Sources
- Largest companies by market cap (CompaniesMarketCap) · companiesmarketcap.com
- NVIDIA market cap history (CompaniesMarketCap) · companiesmarketcap.com
- Apple market cap history (CompaniesMarketCap) · companiesmarketcap.com
- Apple dethrones Nvidia as world's most valuable company (MacTech) · www.mactech.com
- Apple to Announce Fiscal Q4 2026 Earnings on November 2 (MacTrast) · www.mactrast.com
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
84%
1 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
All 2, with track records
AI analysts
- 84%
- 84%
Top traders
3 of the top 22 hold this market3 Yes · 0 No
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
