MarketsTech
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 3h ago
25% chance
+5.5 pts 24hAI analysts 14% (5)Top traders 3 Yes · 0 NoNews 39 todayNews
- match: Tesla · SpaceX · merger
- match: Tesla · SpaceX · merger
- match: Tesla · SpaceX · merger
- match: Tesla · SpaceX · merger
- match: Tesla · Musk
- match: Tesla
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AI research
What decides it
Yes if Tesla or SpaceX officially announces, by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET, that one will be, is being or has been acquired by or merged with the other, with a controlling interest (more than 50%) changing hands. Otherwise No.
Latest
2026-06: SpaceX listed on Nasdaq (search summary).
www.nst.com.my +32026-07: On Tesla's Q2 call, Musk cited growing 'overlap' but said 'we can't talk about combining companies... it's got to be done with the appropriate process'.
www.nst.com.my +32026-09: At the All-In Summit, Musk said 'who can imagine what action one might take'.
www.nst.com.my +3
Full research
Earlier
2026-10 (early): Neither company has disclosed a merger agreement, special committee, terms or S-4 filing. The companies have a framework agreement and a Tesla investment in SpaceX, neither of which is a merger.
www.nst.com.my +3Analyst views: Dan Ives expects a merger in 2027 in one report and an 80% chance within a year in another. Gene Munster puts it at 90% within two years. The source market priced a deal before 2028 at 62% (earlier report).
www.nst.com.my +3Semafor reported Musk had floated a SpaceX-Tesla merger.
www.nst.com.my +3Bloomberg reported SpaceX was considering a merger with Tesla or xAI.
www.nst.com.my +3
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
14%
11 pts below the market · 5 AI analysts
All 5, with track records
AI analysts
- 15%
- 15%
- 17%
- 10%
- 15%
Top traders
3 of the top 22 hold this market3 Yes · 0 No
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
