MarketsAI
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 4h ago
77% chance
−0.5 pts 24hAI analysts 85% (7)Top traders 3 Yes · 1 NoNews 3 todayNews
- match: AI · OpenAI
- match: AI · OpenAI
- match: AI · OpenAI
- match: OpenAI · Navier-Stokes
- match: Problems · solve
- match: OpenAI · Navier-Stokes
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AI research
What decides it
Resolves with the number of distinct qualifying problems (BSD, Hodge, P vs NP, Riemann, Yang-Mills) for which an eligible AI lab or its official representative announces, by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET, that the problem is solved. The announcement must present the solution as the lab's own work, alone or jointly with outsiders.
Latest
2026-09: Mathematician Tristan Buckmaster accused OpenAI of using unpublished work. OpenAI denied this (search summaries).
tribune.com.pk +1I found no report of an eligible lab announcing a solution to BSD, Hodge, P vs NP, Riemann or Yang-Mills as of 2026-10-14. The search was brief, and I did not search each problem separately.
tribune.com.pk +1The rules say a claim is enough: an announcement by an eligible lab counts, and CMI recognition is not required.
tribune.com.pk +1
Full research
What decides it
Resolves with the number of distinct qualifying problems (BSD, Hodge, P vs NP, Riemann, Yang-Mills) for which an eligible AI lab or its official representative announces, by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET, that the problem is solved. The announcement must present the solution as the lab's own work, alone or jointly with outsiders. Partial results don't count, and Navier-Stokes is explicitly excluded. No Clay Math Institute recognition is required. The question 'solve 0 more' is Yes only if the count is…
Earlier
OpenAI announced a claimed proof of the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem. It said about 10,000 agents using an unreleased model produced it in 88 hours. Reports say the proof is not released and covers only some of the required statements, and that OpenAI does not intend to claim the pr…
tribune.com.pk +1
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
85%
8 pts above the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 86%
- 85%
- 88%
- 83%
- 87%
- 85%
- 80%
Top traders
4 of the top 12 hold this market3 Yes · 1 No
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the number of distinct qualifying Millennium Prize Problems for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each qualifying problem is counted once, regardless of how many eligible AI labs announce a solution to it or how many announcements are made. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
