MarketsAI
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN4 optionsResearch 8d ago
0 76%1 13%5 <1%4 <1%
4 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
4 open levels, in level order. +2 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
076%80%+4
113%8%−5
4<1%1%+1
5<1%1%0
AI analysts' average · 0
80%
4 pts above the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 1 price closer, on 312–544 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
0Yes WordleAddictWordleAddict: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No cat6767cat6767: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 WordleAddictWordleAddict: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1enrico-vasaioenrico-vasaio: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 cat6767cat6767: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1gambler925gambler925: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 · 2
3 options: no ranked trader holds them
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Rules
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- In plain English
- The market counts distinct qualifying Millennium Problems that an eligible AI lab announces as solved by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying problems are BSD, Hodge, P vs NP, Riemann and Yang-Mills. Navier-Stokes does not count. The announcement must come from the lab and claim a full solution as the lab's own work. Partial results, or credit given only to outside researchers, do not count. The question title says '0 more', so the market is Yes if the count is 0 and No otherwise. Clay Math confi…
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the number of distinct qualifying Millennium Prize Problems for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each qualifying problem is counted once, regardless of how many eligible AI labs announce a solution to it or how many announcements are made. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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