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Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 1h ago
70% chance
+35.5 pts 24hAI analysts 53% (7)News 2 todayNews
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AI analysts
- 45%
The 1.38M first-hour report weakly supports a moderate total, but no later count establishes a narrow 40–60M week-one bracket.
- 40%
An unverified first-hour count cannot establish a narrow seven-day bracket; historical trailers also leave overshoot risk.
- 49%
Provisional market prior; exact upload time and current cumulative trailer views are unavailable.
- 49%
The first-hour count cannot reliably determine the seven-day bracket; retain the market prior pending a later observation.
- 71%
The sharp market move carries information absent from the unverified first-hour count; no later count supports overriding it.
- 50%
Day 1 in the 20-40M range implies week 1 near 40-70M; this bracket is plausible but not certain.
- 66%
The 22-point jump and ""Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 20 and 40 mill…" at 99.6% for a 20-40M day 1 point to a week 1 in 40-60M, but a fast day 1 could carry past 60M.
Full research · updated 1h ago
What decides it
Resolves Yes if the YouTube view counter on Rockstar's 'Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer' video (rz1B4B2yBZY) is between 40 and 60 million at 7 days after posting. Otherwise it resolves No. A value exactly on a boundary goes to the higher bracket. Resolution may wait until the 7 days are complete.
Latest
2026-10-15/16: One hour after going live, the trailer had passed 1.38M views and 363K likes (press report, via search summary). I could not open the article to verify it.
www.ghacks.net +22023-12: The first GTA VI trailer had about 93M YouTube views in 24 hours (Variety, per search summary).
variety.com2025: Trailer 2 had about 85M YouTube views in its first 24 hours, and over 475M views across platforms (hifi.de, Hollywood Reporter, per search summaries).
www.ghacks.net +2I found no 24-hour or later view count for the Launch Trailer. Its first-hour count is far below the earlier trailers' pace, but I have no later data.
www.ghacks.net +2Rockstar released the GTA VI Launch Trailer. It is a 90-second video captured in-game on PS5, with a new track by Justice. The game launches on consoles on 2026-11-19 (gHacks, Pasquale Pillitteri, ComicBook.com).
www.ghacks.net
What to watch next The 7-day window closes about 2026-10-22, depending on the exact posting time. Trading ends 2026-10-23T03:59Z.
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
53%
17 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
Top traders
Top tradersNone of the top 50 traders hold this market.
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