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Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN13 levels openCloses Dec 1, 2026Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Michael Owen 66%David Beckham 62%Lionel Messi 38%Kaka 29%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

13 levels open · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Lionel Messi38%−11.0 pts42%none
Cristiano Ronaldo4%+0.2 pts3%none
Lamine Yamal98%+3.7 pts92%none
Kylian Mbappé83%+7.5 pts73%none
Harry Kane98%—95%none
Ousmane Dembélé93%−0.8 pts91%none
Vinícius Júnior19%—16%none
Michael Owen66%+2.0 pts53%none
Zinedine Zidane79%+19.5 pts32%none
David Beckham62%+29.0 pts41%none
Xavi Hernandez3%+0.4 pts5%none
Kaka29%−7.0 pts30%none
Sergio Ramos5%−2.2 pts10%none

13 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Lionel Messi38%42%+4
Cristiano Ronaldo4%3%−1
Lamine Yamal98%92%−6
Kylian Mbappé83%73%−10
Harry Kane98%95%−3
Ousmane Dembélé93%91%−2
+7 more options

AI analysts' average · Harry Kane

95%

3 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Zinedine Zidane: AI 32% vs market 79%, 47 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 1h
    Harry Kane’s family anxiously waiting to discover his Ballon d’Or fate
    Herts Advertiser
  • 1h
    Gerrard hails Harry Kane as greatness and backs Bayern star to win the Ballon d’Or
    Yahoo Sports
  • 1h
    Harry Kane : Ballon dOr for Bayern Munich striker ?
    dw.com
  • 1h
    Declan Rice Tips Harry Kane For 2026 Ballon D’Or
    Independent Newspaper Nigeria
  • 2h
    Ballon d’Or 2026 Power Rankings : Harry Kane emerges favourite to win ahead of Lamine Yamal – Ghanamma . com
    ghanamma.com
  • 2h
    Harry Kane leads Champions League Golden Boot race ahead of Ballon d’Or ceremony
    Bavarian Football Works
  • 2h
    Harry Kane admits wait to learn if he has won Ballon dOr is very stressful for family
    aol.co.uk
  • 2h
    "My wife would prefer to know the result now": Harry Kane enters the Ballon d'Or debate with fresh comments
    Goal.com
  • 2h
    Harry Kane, the Ballon d'Or and England's history of heartbreak: Can Bayern Munich star buck the trend?
    ESPN
  • 2h
    Harry Kane: My wife wants to know Ballon d’Or result before ceremony
    The Times
  • 2h
    Declan Rice: Harry Kane 'deserves' Ballon d'Or': 'It's his time'
    ESPN
  • 3h
    Harry Kane Favored to Win the Ballon d'Or
    Nacionale
  • 3h
    Kane talks about his "sugar passport" and puts speculation about the Ballon d'Or into perspective
    blue News
  • 3h
    Reasons why Messi may not attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or award ceremony
    Laodong.vn
  • 3h
    Harry Kane stands on verge of breaking Bayern Munch's Ballon d'Or drought. Is he getting better with age?
    DW.com
  • 3h
    Ballon d'Or for Harry Kane? 'Could be a special evening'
    Yahoo Sports
  • 4h
    The unique way Harry Kane has reversed the Ballon d’Or debate
    The Independent
  • 4h
    ‘It’d be a massive honour’ – Harry Kane on the Ballon d’Or
    Get German Football News
  • 4h
    Harry Kane Responds to Thierry Henry Saying He's Not His Ballon d'Or Favourite
    GiveMeSport
  • 4h
    'Would be incredibly deserved' - Kompany backs Kane for Ballon d'Or after Arsenal draw
    SABC Sport
  • 5h
    Arsenal's Declan Rice back Harry Kane for Ballon d'Or after Bayern Munich draw
    TribalFootball
  • 5h
    Team player Harry Kane deserves Ballon d’Or says Bayern Munich coach
    Yahoo Sports
  • 5h
    Harry Kane Bayern Munich Performance strengthens Ballon d'Or case in 2-2 draw with Arsenal
    شبكة تواصل الإخبارية
  • 5h
    Harry Kane takes bizarre goal kick for Bayern vs Arsenal - and team nearly score
    The Sun
  • 5h
    Harry Kane keen to learn Ballon d'Or verdict before London ceremony
    OneFootball
  • 5h
    Harry Kane admits he would 'love to know' Ballon d'Or decision in advance as Bayern striker tries not to stress ahead of Monday ceremony
    Goal.com
  • 7h
    Declan Rice tips England team-mate Harry Kane as 'clear winner' for Ballon d'Or after hard-fought Champions League draw in Munich
    Goal.com
  • 8h
    Declan Rice backs Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane for the Ballon d’Or
    Bavarian Football Works
  • 9h
    Messi did not attend the Ballon d'Or ceremony because he was busy 'meeting' the Spanish Royal Family.
    Vietnam.vn
  • 9h
    'Hard not to think about it': Kane wishes he knew of Ballon d'Or winner in advance
    Flashscore.com
  • 10h
    Harry Kane: How Ballon d'Or contender stepped closer to Champions League history for Bayern Munich
    Sports Mole
  • 12h
    In-the-dark Kane trying not to 'stress' over Monday's Ballon d'Or reveal
    ESPN
  • 12h
    Champions League : Harry Kane's low-key character could harm his Ballon d'Or chances
    BBC
  • 12h
    Bayern Munich: 'Ridiculous' Harry Kane underlines Ballon d'Or credentials
    BBC
  • 13h
    Ballon dOr 2026 power rankings : Who leads the race with a week until ceremony ?
    aol.co.uk
  • 13h
    Clear winner : Arsenal star Declan Rice makes Harry Kane Ballon dOr claim
    aol.co.uk
  • 13h
    Ballon d'Or: Harry Kane says 'it would be incredible' to win award
    Sky Sports
  • 13h
    Is it 'phenomenal' Kane's year to lift the Ballon d'Or?
    BBC
  • 13h
    Laurens argues Kvaratskhelia should win Ballon d'Or ahead of Kane
    TNT Sports
  • 13h
    Harry Kane gives verdict on Arsenal after Bayern Munich draw
    teamtalk.com
  • 14h
    Arsenal survive brilliant Ballon d'Or winner Kane - but did Rice 'cheating' salvage Bayern draw?
    Football365
  • 14h
    Even in a draw vs. Arsenal, Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane shows why he’s the best
    Yahoo Sports
  • 14h
    'He's ridiculous' - Rice says Kane is 'clear winner' for Ballon d'Or
    TNT Sports
  • 14h
    Incredible Harry Kane underlines Ballon d'Or case by taking the mickey out of Arsenal defence
    talkSPORT
  • 14h
    'It'll be a massive honour' - Kane hopeful of lifting Ballon d'Or
    TNT Sports
  • 14h
    Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane named Player of the Match against Arsenal in the Champions League
    Yahoo Sports
  • 14h
    Declan Rice spoils Harry Kane party as Arsenal bounce back from Bukayo Saka blow
    aol.co.uk
  • 14h
    Kompany and Kane react to Ballon d’Or favourite tag after Arsenal draw
    Bulinews
  • 14h
    Declan Rice declares Harry Kane as the clear winner for Ballon dOr
    aol.co.uk
  • 15h
    A gateway to the Ballon d'Or? Kane extends incredible streak
    Yahoo Sports
  • 16h
    Do you know why Harry Kane is poised to make history at the Ballon d’Or?
    Bavarian Football Works
  • 18h
    No Bayern player has won the Ballon d’Or for 45 years. Would a Harry Kane win mean much to them?
    The New York Times
  • 18h
    Ballon d’Or 2026 contenders ranked: Can Kane or Olise fend off Yamal surge? - The Athletic
    The New York Times
  • 20h
    Following the alarming injury: will Kvaratskhelia attend the Ballon d'Or ceremony?
    LiveScore
  • 21h
    The photo of Harry Kane that raises suspicions: Has he won the Ballon d'Or?
    MARCA
  • 22h
    Havertz names Ballon d'Or contender Kane as his inspiration
    TNT Sports
  • 22h
    Has Harry Kane Already Won the Ballon d’Or? The Mysterious Bayern Munich Photo That Confused Everyone
    beIN SPORTS
  • 22h
    Harry Kane tuxedo post sparks Ballon d'Or chatter as Bayern clarify Arsenal teaser
    OneFootball
  • 23h
    Stir over Harry Kane! Has the Bayern Munich striker already won the Ballon d'Or?
    Goal.com
  • 1d
    Inside Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or charge as Cristiano Ronaldo record eyed vs Arsenal
    The Mirror
  • 1d
    Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe - Who will win the Ballon d’Or?
    TNT Sports
  • 1d
    Kane aiming for Ballon d'Or point as he looks to slay Arsenal again
    DAZN
  • 1d
    Copa Independent | Kane v Yamal – and is the Ballon d’Or just a PR contest?
    AOL.com
  • 1d
    Harry Kane overlooked in Ballon d’Or past, will that change now?
    Bavarian Football Works
  • 1d
    Harry Kane isn't the world's best footballer - but Bayern Munich and England star is most deserving of the Ballon d'Or in 2026
    Goal.com
  • 1d
    The two players Arsenal kept ahead of Harry Kane as youngsters - with one already retired
    aol.co.uk
  • 1d
    Harry Kane Ballon d’Or debate: why he should win over Lamine Yamal
    Irish Independent
  • 1d
    Bayern Munich’s Jonas Urbig believes teammate Harry Kane should win the Ballon d’Or
    Bavarian Football Works
  • 1d
    AI Tips Lamine Yamal for 2026 Ballon dOr Ahead of Mbappé and Kane
    moroccoworldnews.com
  • 1d
    Harry Kane backed to end England’s long Ballon d’Or wait by Bayern teammate
    The Independent
  • 1d
    Serge Gnabry vote Harry Kane pour le Ballon d’Or
    OneFootball
  • 1d
    Ballon dOr Win Market Odds: Harry Kane Now 2/7
    WhoScored.com
  • 2d
    Hankook Tire backs Ballon d’Or ceremony for third straight year; fans who vote on their pick for the winner entered in a draw for a London invitation
    파이낸셜뉴스
  • 2d
    Harry Kane Favoured for 2026 Ballon dOr After Treble
    zalebs.com
  • 2d
    2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony: When and where, all the nominees and how the awards are decided
    UEFA.com
  • 2d
    2026 Ballon d’Or Betting Tips: Prolific Kane has the edge via his World Cup displays
    DAZN
  • 2d
    Thierry Henry will host the 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony
    now.arsenal
  • 3d
    The 2026 Ballon d'Or: The case for Kane
    DAZN
  • 3d
    Another pundit says Harry Kane deserves Ballon d’Or
    Bavarian Football Works
  • 3d
    When is the 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony? Harry Kane in the running for prestigious award
    talkSPORT
  • 3d
    Yamal, Kane, Mbappe, Olise & Raphinha: 2027 Ballon d'Or race stats compared
    Planet Football
  • 3d
    Harry Kane Leads Ballon d’Or Odds as Last Year’s Winner Trails
    Heavy.com
  • 3d
    Ballon d’Or 2026: Is Lamine Yamal the favourite over Harry Kane?
    Sports Mole
  • 3d
    Harry Kane : “Gagner la Ballon d’Or serait un énorme accomplissement”
    OneFootball
  • 5d
    Kane backed for Ballon d'Or over Olise by Bayern president
    beIN SPORTS
  • 5d
    Bayern Munich wants Harry Kane extension finalized before Ballon d’Or ceremony
    Yahoo Sports
  • 5d
    Bayern Munich prez says Harry Kane should win Ballon d’Or
    Yahoo Sports
  • 6d
    2026 Ballon dOr : Organisers issue fresh update ahead of ceremony – The Sun Nigeria
    thesun.ng
  • 6d
    Ballon d’Or? NFL? One pundit thinks Harry Kane can do it all
    Yahoo Sports
  • 6d
    Harry Kane future: Premier League return stance 'clear' after Bayern Munich contract call
    Sports Mole
  • 6d
    Harry Kane verbally agrees Bayern Munich deal - but fails to get desired contract length
    aol.co.uk
  • 6d
    JULES BREACH : Harry Kane has had the season of his life and deserves to become the first Englishman since Michael Owen to win the Ballon dOr
    fourfourtwo.com
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

13 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 13 options

The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to be held in London on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, attending the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to be held in London on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, attending the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Harry Kane · Buy YesOption 5 of 13

Polymarket price · live

Yes99¢
No4¢
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Before you decide · Harry Kane

  • News59 today · latest 1h
  • AI analysts95% · 3 pts below
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.