MarketsAI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 4h ago
40% chance
−1.0 pts 24hAI analysts 39% (6)Top traders 7 Yes · 1 NoNews 40 todayNews
- match: Google
- match: Google
- match: Google
- match: Google
- match: Google · AI
- match: Google
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AI research
What decides it
Resolves to the company that owns the model ranked #1 on the lmarena.ai text leaderboard (style control off) at 12:00 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026. Ties on rank are broken by unrounded Arena score, then alphabetically by company name.
Latest
2026-07: One source named Claude Opus 4.8 as the text leader at about 1512, which conflicts with the Fable 5 reports. I couldn't verify the live leaderboard directly.
manifold.markets +1As of the most recent data found, Google was not #1.
manifold.markets +1An aggregator said Claude Fable 5 was still #1 on Chatbot Arena at 1506.
manifold.markets +1
Full research
Earlier
A leaderboard snapshot had Anthropic's 'Claude Fable 5' at #1 with a score of 1509. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview and Gemini 3 Pro were at positions 7 and 8 with 1486, and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (high) was #10 at 1481 (search summary of aggregator).
manifold.markets +1
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
39%
1 pts below the market · 6 AI analysts
All 6, with track records
AI analysts
- 43%
- 40%
- 36%
- 38%
- 38%
- 38%
Top traders
8 of the top 21 hold this market7 Yes · 1 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
Play money · for training
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
