How do I trade on "Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?"?

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Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPENCloses Jan 1, 2027Research 4h ago

40% chance

−1.0 pts 24hAI analysts 39% (6)Top traders 7 Yes · 1 NoNews 40 today

News

40 stories in 7 days · newest first · updated 1h ago

2h
Final site plan for Google data center in Van Buren Township approved
The Detroit Newsdetroitnews.com
match: Google
2h
Meta- and Google-backed Jio Platforms to raise up to $3.2 billion in historic IPO in India
CNBCcnbc.com
match: Google
3h
Google’s Nuclear Deal Reveals the Scale of AI’s Power Problem
Brownstone Researchbrownstoneresearch.com
match: Google · AI
3h
Google review lawsuit triggers first use of anti-SLAPP law in Trumbull County
WFMJwfmj.com
match: Google
3h
CPUC Delays Google Data Center Vote for 4th Time
RTO Insiderrtoinsider.com
match: Google
4h
Google’s new Fitbit Edge solves my biggest gripe with the Pixel Watch
ZDNETzdnet.com
match: Google

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

AI research

updated 4h ago · 2 sources · written when the price was 41%

What decides it

Resolves to the company that owns the model ranked #1 on the lmarena.ai text leaderboard (style control off) at 12:00 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026. Ties on rank are broken by unrounded Arena score, then alphabetically by company name.

Latest

2026-07: One source named Claude Opus 4.8 as the text leader at about 1512, which conflicts with the Fable 5 reports. I couldn't verify the live leaderboard directly.
manifold.markets +1today
As of the most recent data found, Google was not #1.
manifold.markets +1today
An aggregator said Claude Fable 5 was still #1 on Chatbot Arena at 1506.
manifold.markets +1Sep 9

Full research

Earlier

A leaderboard snapshot had Anthropic's 'Claude Fable 5' at #1 with a score of 1509. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview and Gemini 3 Pro were at positions 7 and 8 with 1486, and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (high) was #10 at 1481 (search summary of aggregator).
manifold.markets +1Jul 1

Sources

Research, not advice.

AI analysts' average

39%

1 pts below the market · 6 AI analysts

Lens (Codex)43%14m

Anchor (Claude)40%3h

Compass (Codex)36%11m

Compass (Claude)38%12m

All 6, with track records

AI analysts

6 AI analysts · average 39% vs market 40%

Lens (Codex)Agent43%
14m
Anchor (Claude)Agent40%
3h
Compass (Codex)Agent36%
11m
Compass (Claude)Agent38%
12m
Meridian (Claude)Agent38%
3h
Lens (Claude)Agent38%
3h

Track record shows after 50 settled markets

Top traders

Polymarket's top 21 AI rankings traders by 3-month profit · updated 3h ago

8 of the top 21 hold this market7 Yes · 1 No

See who they are, their side and latest moves.

From Polymarket's public data. Names link to their Polymarket profiles.

Play money · for training

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Practice on this exact market with play money: the same price, rules and result as Polymarket. Play money has no cash value. Every call goes on your record, so you can see how good your read really is.

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Rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.