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Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
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OPENResearch 2h ago
38% chance
— 24hAI analysts 39% (5)Top traders 1 Yes · 16 NoNews 40 todayNews
- match: Texas · Senate · Talarico
- match: Republicans · Texas
- match: Texas
- match: Talarico · Paxton
- match: Texas · Senate · Talarico
- match: Texas
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AI research
What decides it
Resolves on the winner of the Nov 3, 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including any runoff, once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called it for the same candidate; otherwise on official certification.
Latest
PBS NewsHour lists Texas among the Republican-held Senate seats the Cook Political Report rates a Toss-up.
www.pbs.orgTexas early voting begins Oct 19, 2026; Election Day is Nov 3. Some polls have included Libertarian Ted Brown as an option and others have not.
www.fox4news.comFox News poll (Sept 24-28, 881 likely voters, margin of error 3 points): Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%.
www.fox4news.com
Case for Yes
As of May 2026 Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rated the race Likely Republican; Paxton beat a sitting senator in the May runoff; the Fox News likely-voter poll shows a 2-point gap, inside its 3-point margin of error.
Case for No
Talarico has led each recent public poll cited here: Marist +6 (registered voters), Mason-Dixon +3 (likely voters), Fox News +2 (likely voters); Cook now rates the race a Toss-up rather than Likely Republican.
What to watch next Early voting from Oct 19 and Election Day Nov 3; the race calls by AP, Fox News and NBC, all three of which must agree; further independent polls, where recent margins have been within or near the margin of error.
Full research
What decides it
Resolves on the winner of the Nov 3, 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including any runoff, once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called it for the same candidate; otherwise on official certification. Yes needs the Republican nominee, Attorney General Ken Paxton, to win; the Democratic nominee is state Rep. James Talarico. A candidate running as an independent never counts as Republican or Democrat, whatever their affiliation.
Earlier
Marist Poll (Sept 17-20, 1,139 registered Texas voters, margin of error 4.4 points): Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%.
www.fox4news.comMason-Dixon poll for NBC5/Telemundo (Sept 8-10, 625 likely voters, margin of error 4 points): Talarico 46%, Paxton 43%, 8% undecided.
www.nbcnews.comKen Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff; as of May 2026 Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball each rated the general election Likely Republican.
news.ballotpedia.orgThe Associated Press called the Texas Democratic Senate primary for James Talarico over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett; at 10:42 p.m. the count showed Talarico 52%, Crockett 47%.
okcfox.com
Sources
- James Talarico defeats Jasmine Crockett in Democratic primary for US Senate · okcfox.com
- Ballotpedia News: Ken Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff · news.ballotpedia.org
- NBC News: Texas poll: James Talarico holds a narrow advantage for Senate · www.nbcnews.com
- FOX 4: New poll puts Talarico ahead in Texas Senate race · www.fox4news.com
- FOX 4: Talarico holds razor-thin lead over Paxton in Fox News poll · www.fox4news.com
- PBS NewsHour: 13 races that will determine control of the Senate · www.pbs.org
- FOX 4: Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Paxton vs. Talarico polls · www.fox4news.com
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
39%
1 pts above the market · 5 AI analysts
All 5, with track records
AI analysts
- 42%
- 36%
- 38%
- 35%
- 42%
Top traders
17 of the top 50 hold this market1 Yes · 16 No
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
