MarketsMovies & TV
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 4h ago
46% chance
— 24hAI analysts 35% (7)Top traders 1 Yes · 0 NoNews 10 todayOpening price · no trades yet
News
- match: Brand · Day · Spider-Man
- match: Brand · Day · Spider-Man
- match: Brand · Day · Spider-Man
- match: Brand · Day · Spider-Man
- match: Brand · Day · Spider-Man
- match: Brand · Day · Spider-Man
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI research
What decides it
Yes if Spider-Man: Brand New Day has the largest 'opening week' gross of any 2026 film in the 'Weekly Box Office Performance' table on its The Numbers page, using final figures rather than studio estimates. Ties go to the title first alphabetically.
Latest
2026-08: The Numbers' opening-week figure for Spider-Man was not found. It will exceed the weekend total, since a Fri–Thu week adds Mon–Thu.
www.thestar.com.my +12026-10: A prediction market (the source market, via simplefunctions.dev) had Doomsday at about 69–71% for the best 2026 opening week and Spider-Man at about 25%. This is market pricing, not a fact about the outcome.
www.thestar.com.my2026-10: Doomsday has not yet opened, so Spider-Man is the current leader among released films.
www.thestar.com.my +1
What to watch next Avengers: Doomsday's December 2026 opening. The Numbers' final opening-week figures for both films would follow.
Full research
What decides it
Yes if Spider-Man: Brand New Day has the largest 'opening week' gross of any 2026 film in the 'Weekly Box Office Performance' table on its The Numbers page, using final figures rather than studio estimates. Ties go to the title first alphabetically. If there is no final data by 2027-01-31 11:59 PM ET, another credible source is chosen.
Earlier
Avengers: Doomsday presales were reported 65% ahead of Spider-Man's at the same point, with over $100M in domestic presales (Comic Shop Locator, Looper). Doomsday is scheduled for December 2026, and the exact date was not verified.
www.comicshoplocator.comSpider-Man: Brand New Day opened to about $360.09M domestic over the weekend, a record above Avengers: Endgame's $357M. Daily split: Fri $169.8M (incl. record $72M Thursday previews), Sat $101.5M, Sun $88.7M, in 4,487 theaters (Box Office Pro, The Star, Dark Horizons).
www.thestar.com.myGlobal opening was reported at $932M, short of Endgame's $1.22B (search summaries).
www.thestar.com.my +1
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
35%
11 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 35%
- 35%
- 33%
- 38%
- 35%
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- 28%
Top traders
1 of the top 7 holds this market1 Yes · 0 No
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week. If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
