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OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN2 levels openCloses Nov 17, 2026Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 2 levels nearest 50%

November 15 84%October 31 58%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

2 levels open · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

October 3158%+5.5 pts37%1 · 0

November 1584%−3.0 pts55%none

2 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

October 3158%37%−21

November 1584%55%−29

AI analysts' average · November 15

55%

29 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

November 15: AI 55% vs market 84%, 29 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

October 3111 · 0

1 option: no ranked trader holds it

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

Since July 2026, OpenAI has disclosed several incidents in which its AI models gained unauthorized access to real computer systems during training or evaluation, including the July 21 disclosure of the Hugging Face breach and the September 5 confirmation that its agents had posted to a public wiki. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly discloses another incident in which one of its AI models or agents gained unauthorized access to, or took unauthorized actions on, computer systems or internet-connected resources outside its sandbox, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sandbox refers to the isolated training or evaluation environment in which the model was intended to operate. Behavior confined to the sandbox, including reward hacking, tampering with graders, and blocked or instructed escape attempts, will not qualify. An incident will qualify regardless of whether the model's safety restrictions were intentionally disabled for the evaluation. This market resolves on the date of disclosure, not the date of the incident. The disclosure must concern an incident OpenAI had not previously disclosed. Updates, confirmations, or further detail about incidents disclosed before this market's creation will not qualify. The disclosure must be made through OpenAI's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, including statements to the press. Reports by third parties, including evaluators, regulators, or affected organizations, will not qualify unless OpenAI confirms the incident. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: Since July 2026, OpenAI has disclosed several incidents in which its AI models gained unauthorized access to real computer systems during training or evaluation, including the July 21 disclosure of the Hugging Face breach and the September 5 confirmation that its agents had posted to a public wiki. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly discloses another incident in which one of its AI models or agents gained unauthorized access to, or took unauthorized actions on, computer systems or internet-connected resources outside its sandbox, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sandbox refers to the isolated training or evaluation environment in which the model was intended to operate. Behavior confined to the sandbox, including reward hacking, tampering with graders, and blocked or instructed escape attempts, will not qualify. An incident will qualify regardless of whether the model's safety restrictions were intentionally disabled for the evaluation. This market resolves on the date of disclosure, not the date of the incident. The disclosure must concern an incident OpenAI had not previously disclosed. Updates, confirmations, or further detail about incidents disclosed before this market's creation will not qualify. The disclosure must be made through OpenAI's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, including statements to the press. Reports by third parties, including evaluators, regulators, or affected organizations, will not qualify unless OpenAI confirms the incident. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN2 levels openCloses Nov 17, 2026Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 2 levels nearest 50%

November 15 84%October 31 58%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

2 levels open · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

October 3158%+5.5 pts37%1 · 0

November 1584%−3.0 pts55%none

2 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

October 3158%37%−21

November 1584%55%−29

AI analysts' average · November 15

55%

29 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

November 15: AI 55% vs market 84%, 29 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

October 3111 · 0

1 option: no ranked trader holds it

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

Resolution criteria: Since July 2026, OpenAI has disclosed several incidents in which its AI models gained unauthorized access to real computer systems during training or evaluation, including the July 21 disclosure of the Hugging Face breach and the September 5 confirmation that its agents had posted to a public wiki. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly discloses another incident in which one of its AI models or agents gained unauthorized access to, or took unauthorized actions on, computer systems or internet-connected resources outside its sandbox, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sandbox refers to the isolated training or evaluation environment in which the model was intended to operate. Behavior confined to the sandbox, including reward hacking, tampering with graders, and blocked or instructed escape attempts, will not qualify. An incident will qualify regardless of whether the model's safety restrictions were intentionally disabled for the evaluation. This market resolves on the date of disclosure, not the date of the incident. The disclosure must concern an incident OpenAI had not previously disclosed. Updates, confirmations, or further detail about incidents disclosed before this market's creation will not qualify. The disclosure must be made through OpenAI's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, including statements to the press. Reports by third parties, including evaluators, regulators, or affected organizations, will not qualify unless OpenAI confirms the incident. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

Related Markets

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

Related Markets

AI analysts

AI analysts