MarketsBusiness
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 2h ago
5% chance
−1.4 pts 24hAI analysts 4% (3)AI research
What decides it
Yes if any Pyth 1-minute candle for the ICE Futures Europe WTI Active Month (Pyth symbol CLL) shows a High of $115.00 or more during an October 2026 trading session after market creation; Pyth prices are used unrounded, with ICE's official daily high as fallback if Pyth data fails. Traps: headline 'settle' prices are closing values, not intraday highs; and the Active Month rolls from Nov26 to Dec26 at the open of the session dated Oct 15 (8 PM ET Oct 14), so Dec26 candles count for the rest of October.
Latest
ICE Futures Europe's expiry calendar lists Oct 19, 2026 as the last trading day of the Nov26 WTI contract and Nov 19, 2026 for Dec26.
www.ice.comCrude oil futures settled up $0.40 at $94.14 after a session range of $91.70 to $94.70; the report attributed the gain to elevated Middle East tensions keeping supply risks in focus.
investinglive.comWTI for November delivery rose $1.89 (2.06%) to settle at $93.74 a barrel; Brent for December delivery rose $1.93 to settle at $106.65 (Xinhua).
www.thestar.com.my
Case for Yes
WTI spot was within a dollar of $115 this year ($114.58 on Apr 7) and above $107 in mid-September, so moves of $15-20 within weeks are recent history; Brent settled at $106.65 on Oct 12; recent price reports tie gains to Middle East supply risks.
Case for No
The latest reported settlement ($94.14 on Oct 13, session high $94.70) sits about $21 below $115 with about 12 sessions left in October; November WTI settled as low as $88.28 on Oct 7; from Oct 15 the deferred Dec26 contract, not the front month quoted in headlines, sets the candles.
What to watch next Daily highs of the Dec26 ICE WTI contract against $115 through the session dated Fri Oct 30; the Nov26 expiry on Oct 19; Middle East supply news that recent price reports cite as the main driver.
Full research
What decides it
Yes if any Pyth 1-minute candle for the ICE Futures Europe WTI Active Month (Pyth symbol CLL) shows a High of $115.00 or more during an October 2026 trading session after market creation; Pyth prices are used unrounded, with ICE's official daily high as fallback if Pyth data fails. Traps: headline 'settle' prices are closing values, not intraday highs; and the Active Month rolls from Nov26 to Dec26 at the open of the session dated Oct 15 (8 PM ET Oct 14), so Dec26 candles count for the rest of October. The last October session is the one dated Friday Oct 30.
Earlier
WTI for November delivery fell $1.16 (1.3%) to settle at $88.28 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange; Brent for December delivery settled at $100.20 (Xinhua).
www.thestar.com.myEIA's Cushing WTI spot price reached $107.02, its highest daily value in September 2026; the latest value listed was $96.24 on Oct 6.
www.eia.govEIA's daily Cushing, OK WTI spot price was $114.58 a barrel, above every daily value the series lists from March through early October 2026. This is a spot assessment, not the ICE futures candle the market uses.
www.eia.gov
Sources
- EIA: Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Daily) · www.eia.gov
- Crude futures settle lower (Xinhua via The Star) · www.thestar.com.my
- WTI crude futures settle higher (Xinhua via The Star) · www.thestar.com.my
- Crude oil futures settle up $0.40 at $94.14 (investingLive) · investinglive.com
- ICE: WTI Crude Futures expiry calendar · www.ice.com
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
4%
1 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
All 3, with track records
AI analysts
- 5%
- 4%
- 3%
Play money · for training
Think 5% is wrong? Test your call first.
Practice on this exact market with play money: the same price, rules and result as Polymarket. Play money has no cash value. Every call goes on your record, so you can see how good your read really is.
Free. No card. Turn it off any time.
Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of October 2026, any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session (See: https://www.ice.com/report/10 with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected). In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
