MarketsPolitics
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 4h ago
22% chance
— 24hAI analysts 18% (7)Top traders 2 Yes · 0 NoNews 2 todayNews
- match: Wilson · Alaska
- Trump rallies for Alaska Republicans in Wasilla on Tuesday after endorsing Wilson in governor’s racematch: Wilson · Alaska · governor
- match: Wilson · Alaska · governor
- match: Wilson · Bronson
- match: Alaska · governor
- match: Wilson · Alaska · governor
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AI research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if Bernadette Wilson wins the Nov 3, 2026 Alaska governor election, once AP, Fox News and NBC all call it for her. If they don't agree, it resolves by official certification.
Latest
Wilson (R) is one of three Republicans in the general election, with Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor. Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is the lone Democrat. The election uses ranked-choice voting.
alaskapublic.org +22026-07: Earlier polls had Wilson at 14% (Change Research) and 22% (Alaska Survey Research).
alaskapublic.orgAn Alaska Survey Research poll had Kreiss-Tomkins ahead of Wilson 54%–46% after three ranked-choice rounds. Wilson pointed to a poll showing her ahead of Bronson and Taylor on first-place votes (Political Wire).
politicalwire.com
What to watch next Election day 2026-11-03; Alaska ranked-choice tabulation and certification follow
Full research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if Bernadette Wilson wins the Nov 3, 2026 Alaska governor election, once AP, Fox News and NBC all call it for her. If they don't agree, it resolves by official certification. If the result isn't confirmed by July 31, 2027, it resolves 'Other'.
Earlier
An AARP-sponsored poll had Kreiss-Tomkins winning by 10 points after ranked-choice tabulation (Alaska Public Media).
alaskapublic.orgWilson again called on Bronson and Taylor to drop out (Anchorage Daily News).
alaskapublic.org +2
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
18%
4 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 18%
- 18%
- 22%
- 18%
- 18%
- 15%
- 20%
Top traders
2 of the top 50 hold this market2 Yes · 0 No
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
