MarketsAI
Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN7 levels open
Saudi Arabia 28%Meta 6%Russia 5%China 4%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
7 levels open · by chance
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
7 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Saudi Arabia28%17%−11
Meta6%4%−2
Russia5%4%−1
China4%3%−1
Iran3%——
Israel2%——
+1 more option
AI analysts' average · Google
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Biggest gap
Saudi Arabia: AI 17% vs market 28%, 11 pts below
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Saudi Arabia10 · 1
Russia10 · 1
Iran10 · 1
Google10 · 1
3 options: no ranked trader holds them
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify. For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual. A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify. Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, or other U.S. federal agencies or their authorized representatives acting in an official capacity, as well as official statements by OpenAI. Once a qualifying allegation has been made, no subsequent retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI.
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