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OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 3h ago
13% chance
— 24hAI analysts 14% (5)News 6 todayOpening price · no trades yet
News
- match: AGI
- match: AGI
- match: AGI
- match: AGI
- match: AGI · TIME
- match: AGI
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if OpenAI or an official representative announces that it has created AGI at any point up to 2026-12-31 ET. Otherwise resolves No.
Latest
2026-08 (reported): In a TIME cover story, Sam Altman projected an internal system qualifying as AGI by 2026-12-31. Chief Research Officer Mark Chen said OpenAI is 80% of the way there (cryptobriefing, gigazine, summarized via search).
cryptobriefing.com +12026-08 (reported): OpenAI's next model family, Astra, coordinates up to 16 agents. Reports say it solved 10 previously unsolved theoretical computer science problems (search summaries).
cryptobriefing.com +32026-08/09: Reports say the AGI target is for an internal system meeting OpenAI's own charter definition ('highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work'). Altman has also played down the significance of AGI and pointed to superintelligence instead (3dnews, 202…
cryptobriefing.com +3
Full research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if OpenAI or an official representative announces that it has created AGI at any point up to 2026-12-31 ET. Otherwise resolves No. The sources are official OpenAI statements and a consensus of credible reporting.
Earlier
Mid-2026: One source says forecasters put the chance that OpenAI announces AGI by year-end at 9–25%.
cryptobriefing.com +3I found no report of an official OpenAI announcement that it has achieved AGI.
cryptobriefing.com +3
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
14%
1 pts above the market · 5 AI analysts
All 5, with track records
AI analysts
- 13%
- 13%
- 15%
- 15%
- 15%
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
