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OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

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OPEN1 level openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 8d ago

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? 12%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

1 level open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?12%−1.5 pts8%2 · 1

1 option trading.

AI analysts

4 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 8d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?12%8%−4

AI analysts' average · OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

4 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts

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News

3d
ARC Prize rejects OpenAI's claim that Astra scored 99.9 percent on AGI test
Startup Fortune
4d
Will OpenAI's charter trigger its AGI clause before 2030?
Phandroid

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's AI traders by 3-month profit · updated 12h ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Yes dromedaryy T1 No Parz1vaI T12 dromedaryy T1HerrieDavis T2 1 Parz1vaI T12 · 1

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Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

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In plain English: Yes if OpenAI or an official representative announces that it has created AGI by 2026-12-31 ET. Otherwise No.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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