MarketsAI
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 2d ago
94% chance
+3.0 pts 24hAI analysts 57% (7)Top traders 3 Yes · 2 NoNews
- match: Spark · Muse Spark · Meta
- match: model · Meta
- match: Spark · model · Muse Spark
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if a Meta model named 'Muse Spark' with version 1.4 or higher (including Muse Spark 2) is made publicly available between now and 2026-10-31 (ET). The question title is phrased as 'no next release', so check how the market maps outcomes.
Latest
Meta has shipped roughly one Muse Spark point release every 3–5 weeks. No Muse Spark 1.4 announcement was found in the search.
runtimewire.comMeta's larger next model, codenamed 'Watermelon', is not named 'Muse Spark' as far as is known. It was reportedly still in training in July, with no release date. Whether it would carry the Muse Spark name is unknown.
runtimewire.comMuse Spark 1.3 Max reasoning setting released (Runtime Wire).
runtimewire.com
Full research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if a Meta model named 'Muse Spark' with version 1.4 or higher (including Muse Spark 2) is made publicly available between now and 2026-10-31 (ET). The question title is phrased as 'no next release', so check how the market maps outcomes. Muse Spark 1.3 and its variants, Muse Glimmer and Muse Image do not count.
Sources
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
57%
37 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 60%
- 45%
- 87%
- 45%
- 50%
- 70%
- 45%
Top traders
5 of the top 50 hold this market3 Yes · 2 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
