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SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN2 levels openResearch 1h ago
December 31 29%October 31 5%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
2 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
2 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
October 315%2%−3
December 3129%29%0
AI analysts' average · October 31
2%
3 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 317 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
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News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
December 31Yes Optimus-Optimus-: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 Optimus-Optimus-: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1cambridgeisaaccambridgeisaac: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
October 31Yes ScottyNoooScottyNooo: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 ScottyNoooScottyNooo: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities. The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
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