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MarketsTech

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN8 optionsCloses Jan 2, 2027

Polymarket price · top 4 of 8 options

Apple 61%NVIDIA 34%Alphabet 6%Microsoft 4%

8 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Apple61%−6.5 pts60%1 · 0
NVIDIA34%+11.0 pts27%1 · 1
Alphabet6%−1.0 pts13%none
Microsoft4%—4%none
SpaceX<1%−0.1 pts1%none
Tesla———none
Amazon———none
Broadcom———none

8 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Apple61%60%−1
NVIDIA34%27%−7
Alphabet6%13%+7
Microsoft4%4%0
SpaceX<1%1%+1
Tesla———
+2 more options

AI analysts' average · Tesla

—

Biggest gap

NVIDIA: AI 27% vs market 34%, 7 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 2h
    S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls, led by tech after Meta, Tesla earnings
    StoneX
  • 3h
    Tesla: Valuation Is Key Consideration in Merger Talks With SpaceX
    Morningstar
  • 3h
    Tesla: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term Investors
    Yahoo Finance
  • 3h
    Tesla held onto its bitcoin in Q3 as speculation of SpaceX merger grows
    Yahoo Finance
  • 3h
    Why Tesla Stock Dropped After Earnings
    The Motley Fool
  • 4h
    Tesla's AI-Related Investments Drive Operating Margin Miss, Truist Says
    Yahoo Finance
  • 4h
    Analysts Hike Tesla Price Targets; SpaceX Merger, AI 'In Full Control'
    Investor's Business Daily
  • 4h
    Watch Stocks Fall as Meta and Tesla Earnings Fail to Support AI Trade
    Bloomberg.com
  • 4h
    Meta and Tesla Lay Bare Stock Market’s Biggest AI Puzzle
    Barron's
  • 5h
    Is Tesla a Buy After Its Latest Earnings Report?
    The Motley Fool
  • 5h
    Here's how Tesla's stock performed after it erased glut of unsold EVs
    USA Today
  • 5h
    Did Wall Street forget about Tesla's Cybercab?
    Yahoo Finance
  • 5h
    Was Tesla’s Flying Roadster Reveal Just a Big SpaceX Marketing Stunt?
    Autoblog
  • 5h
    Tesla, SpaceX, Meta, IBM, Lam Research, Spotify, and More Stocks That Explain Today’s Market
    Barron's
  • 6h
    Tesla Stock Drops as Weak Profits Outweigh Musk’s Bold Robo-Taxi Claims
    Barron's
  • 6h
    AI Stocks Slide As Spending Anxiety Festers After Tesla, Meta Earnings
    Forbes
  • 6h
    Former Tesla board member on obstacles facing potential SpaceX merger
    CNBC
  • 6h
    A SpaceX-Tesla Merger Feels Inevitable. Is It Actually a Good Deal?
    Barron's
  • 6h
    Tesla stock slips despite Q3 earnings beat, better-than-expected capex spend
    Yahoo Finance
  • 6h
    Tesla shares slip after capex cut raises doubts over Musk's AI and robotics push
    Reuters
  • 6h
    Tesla’s Lowered Capex Target Fuels Doubt on AI, Robotics Goals
    Bloomberg.com
  • 7h
    Tesla Falls 4% as Profit Shrinks and Musk Trims Sales Target; Rivian and Lucid Slip
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 8h
    Stocks Fall Pre-Bell as Traders Digest Meta, Tesla Earnings
    Yahoo Finance
  • 8h
    Tesla is falling even after earnings. What analysts are saying
    CNBC
  • 8h
    Tesla and SpaceX Are Trading Like a Merger Is Coming
    Inc.com
  • 8h
    Musk's political baggage clouds prospects for SpaceX-Tesla deal
    Reuters
  • 8h
    Tesla Q3 2026 earnings beat estimates as SpaceX merger is studied
    Quartz
  • 9h
    Elon Musk’s SpaceX-Tesla merger math doesn’t add up
    Fortune
  • 10h
    Behind Elon Musk’s plans for a mega-merger of SpaceX and Tesla
    Los Angeles Times
  • 10h
    Musk’s Tesla-SpaceX Merger Would Formalize a Decadeslong Partnership
    WSJ
  • 10h
    Tesla, Meta, IBM: 3 earnings call shout-outs that left us thinking
    Yahoo Finance
  • 11h
    Tesla’s stock falls as Elon Musk leaves investors wanting more
    MarketWatch
  • 11h
    Meta’s revenue beat; Tesla’s lower annual sales goal - what’s moving markets
    Yahoo Finance
  • 12h
    Samsung Electro-Mechanics gets $2.8 billion chip investment from Tesla, Nvidia, report says
    Reuters
  • 15h
    Tesla Logs Surge in European Monthly Sales
    WSJ
  • 15h
    Musk's public endorsement of SpaceX-Tesla deal may throw a wrench in talks
    www.reuters.com
  • 20h
    Musk Says Tesla Aims to Begin Humanoid Robot Sales Next Year
    WSJ
  • 23h
    Tesla posts surprise positive cash flow on lower-than-expected AI spending
    www.reuters.com
  • 1d
    Tesla reports Q3 earnings beat, free cash flow, and better-than-expected capex
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    Tesla cuts spending before potential SpaceX deal even as Musk bets future on AI, robots
    Reuters
  • 1d
    Tesla beats earnings projections after Musk floats SpaceX merger plan
    The Guardian
  • 1d
    Tesla beats on earnings and sales even as auto revenue declines
    CNBC
  • 1d
    Tesla Q3 preview: Delivery outlook, cash flow, and a dash of merger speculation on tap
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    Musk backs SpaceX-Tesla merger idea as both boards form special committees
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    Wall St sees Tesla-SpaceX merger as inevitable, but split on price
    Reuters
  • 1d
    Why is Elon Musk plotting a mega-merger of SpaceX and Tesla?
    www.bbc.com
  • 1d
    SpaceX and Tesla have formed committees to discuss potential merger, Musk
    www.cnn.com
  • 1d
    Space X and Tesla exploring merger, CEO Elon Musk says
    www.axios.com
  • 1d
    Musk calls Tesla-SpaceX merger a 'good idea'
    www.reuters.com
  • 1d
    Tesla and SpaceX have set up committees to explore a merger
    www.businessinsider.com
  • 3d
    SpaceX, Tesla earnings to test Musk's AI spending ambitions as merger talk grows
    Reuters
  • 4d
    How to Make Your Own Flying Car AI Video (Make a Tesla Roadster AI Video)
    roadster-ai.net
  • 6d
    Tesla unveils 'flying' Roadster with SpaceX thrusters [video]
    www.youtube.com
  • 6d
    Tesla unveils what it says is a flying car
    www.cnn.com
  • 6d
    Elon Musk reveals ' first flying car' at Tesla event – Tesla
    www.theguardian.com
  • 6d
    Tesla unveils Roadster by launching it off a ramp before flipping in midair
    twitter.com
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
NVIDIA21 · 1
Apple11 · 0

6 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 8 options

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Related Markets

Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will SpaceX be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Tesla · Buy YesOption 6 of 8

Polymarket price · live

Yes—
No—
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Before you decide · Tesla

  • News38 today · latest 2h
  • AI analystsreviewing
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.