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MarketsTech

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN8 optionsCloses Jan 1, 2027Research 2h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 8 options

Apple 61%NVIDIA 34%Alphabet 6%Microsoft 4%

8 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Apple61%−6.5 pts60%1 · 0
NVIDIA34%+11.0 pts27%1 · 1
Alphabet6%−1.0 pts13%none
Microsoft4%—4%none
SpaceX<1%−0.1 pts1%none
Tesla———none
Amazon———none
Broadcom———none

8 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 2h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Apple61%60%−1
NVIDIA34%27%−7
Alphabet6%13%+7
Microsoft4%4%0
SpaceX<1%1%+1
Tesla———
+2 more options

AI analysts' average · Microsoft

4%

level with the market · 3 AI analysts

Biggest gap

NVIDIA: AI 27% vs market 34%, 7 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 2h
    Microsoft says its AI tool is better than doctors at diagnosing diseases
    The Verge
  • 2h
    Nvidia Sinks 3% as Wall Street Questions AI Spending Returns at Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon
    FXLeaders
  • 3h
    How much MSFT stock does Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella actually own?
    Yahoo Finance
  • 3h
    Microsoft, Opella partner on agentic AI content verification platform
    Fierce Healthcare
  • 3h
    Microsoft Warns AI Agents Can't Be Trusted, But Continues Adoption
    TechPowerUp
  • 3h
    Microsoft Contact Center Intelligence Takes Aim at CCaaS AI
    The Futurum Group
  • 3h
    Microsoft blames ConnectWise attacks on Chinese state hacker using ARTEX AI agents
    The Record from Recorded Future News
  • 4h
    New Microsoft guidance warns that “trusted” AI agents carry serious security and safety implications
    Windows Central
  • 4h
    Microsoft Stock Could Be Closer to Its Next Big Breakout Than Investors Think
    Yahoo Finance
  • 4h
    Microsoft launches AI Supercomputer Infrastructure team, led by networking head
    SDxCentral
  • 5h
    Nvidia & Microsoft unveil AI agents for Windows PCs
    IT Brief Asia
  • 5h
    PLA Partners with Microsoft on Library AI Info Sessions
    Publishers Weekly
  • 6h
    Microsoft Copilot AI Predicts Hyperliquid to Soar to New Highs in Q4
    Cryptonews
  • 6h
    Google and Microsoft Are Giving AI Agents Work Accounts. Who’s Going to Manage Them?
    Inc.com
  • 6h
    Microsoft Says Chinese Hackers Used AI Tool To Breach ConnectWise, Target Hundreds Of Organisations
    NDTV Profit
  • 6h
    Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon Now Make Up 30.8% of VOO and 49.2% of VUG. Here's a Better Low-Cost Vanguard ETF to Buy Now.
    The Globe and Mail
  • 6h
    ModelOp Takes Control of Enterprise AI Agent Sprawl with Expanded Microsoft and Amazon Integrations
    markets.businessinsider.com
  • 6h
    Microsoft says China-aligned hackers used AI agents in ConnectWise attack
    The Next Web
  • 7h
    Meta Falls 3% as Higher AI Spending Outlook Overshadows Earnings Beat; Alphabet Dips, Microsoft Holds Steady
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 7h
    China-Linked Hackers Use ARTEX AI to Target 2,250 Microsoft 365 Tenants After ConnectWise Breach
    CyberSecurityNews
  • 8h
    Boehringer Microsoft partner AI-backed clinical development
    Boehringer Ingelheim
  • 8h
    China-linked hackers used agentic AI in attack on 2,250 Microsoft 365 tenants
    CSO Online
  • 9h
    Oracle Vs. Microsoft: How The Wildcard AI Spender Plans to Disrupt
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 9h
    Microsoft is Creating a $700 Billion Moat With Its AI Spend Through 2030
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 9h
    Microsoft: Chinese State Actor Used AI to Compromise ConnectWise Tenants
    Infosecurity Magazine
  • 9h
    Microsoft may finally let you turn off some of Edge’s AI. But don’t celebrate yet
    Digital Trends
  • 9h
    NFL Week 7 predictions by Microsoft Copilot AI for every game
    USA Today
  • 10h
    Microsoft Stock Is Up 10% This Year. Is It Still a Buy Ahead of Earnings?
    Morningstar
  • 11h
    Satya Nadella Says Microsoft Is Rebuilding Around AI Agents as Trump Pushes ‘Super Intelligence’ — From 1
    Benzinga
  • 15h
    Microsoft (MSFT) Stock May Be 22% Undervalued After Maia 300 Unveiling
    Yahoo Finance
  • 20h
    Ex-Marine and Microsoft vets launch Watchtower Labs with $35M to bring AI to military logistics
    GeekWire
  • 21h
    Microsoft Stocks Slip as Volkswagen Scales Copilot to 330,000 Workers
    Yahoo Finance
  • 22h
    Boeing, Microsoft Aim AI at Airlines’ $3.1 Billion Repair Bill
    PYMNTS.com
  • 23h
    Microsoft: Treat AI agents as insider threats
    CSO Online
  • 1d
    Opella, Microsoft partner on AI platform for health content review
    MobiHealthNews
  • 1d
    Microsoft and Alphabet opt out of tokenized stocks—the latest blow to an ambitious plan to shake up trading
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    Microsoft and Alphabet opt out of tokenized stocks in latest blow to ambitious plan from OKX and NYSE parent firm
    Fortune
  • 1d
    Alphabet Slips 2% Despite NASDAQ Rally as Pichai Says Google Cloud Is Giving Up Revenue for AI Capacity; Amazon Dips, Microsoft Holds Steady
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 1d
    OpenAI to bring AI models to Google's cloud, in further expansion beyond Microsoft
    CNBC
  • 1d
    Citi Sees Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta Spending More Than Apple Is Worth on AI by 2030
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 1d
    Microsoft, Alphabet and Goldman Sachs Lift OKXICE Objections to 16
    tokenpost.com
  • 2d
    Microsoft, Alphabet, Goldman Sachs Join Growing List of Companies Objecting to Tokenized Stocks
    Decrypt
  • 2d
    Nvidia-Backed Pigment Raises $250 Million to Take on Microsoft
    Bloomberg.com
  • 2d
    Cramer Says AI Data Center Rally Unproven as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon Earnings Loom
    BigGo Finance
  • 2d
    Microsoft, Alphabet, and Goldman Sachs Join OKX-ICE Tokenized Stock Objections, Objectors Reach 16
    NewsCord
  • 2d
    Alphabet, Microsoft add objections to OKX-ICE proposed tokenized stock platform
    TradingView
  • 2d
    The non-gamer CEO racing to save Microsoft’s Xbox
    Fortune
  • 2d
    Microsoft, Alphabet and Goldman Join Revolt Against OKX-ICE Tokenized Stock Plan as Objectors Swell to 16
    BigGo Finance
  • 2d
    Microsoft, Alphabet Bar Their Tokenized Shares From OKX-ICE Venue as Objections Hit 16
    unchainedcrypto.com
  • 2d
    Microsoft, Alphabet and Goldman Sachs join objections to OKX-ICE tokenized stock trading
    CoinDesk
  • 2d
    Running Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 on Apple Silicon Without Rosetta
    gethighball.com
  • 2d
    Microsoft vs. Alphabet: Is GOOGL’s Cloud Growth Worth More Than Investors Think?
    Yahoo Finance
  • 2d
    I Talked to Workers at Amazon, Meta, & Microsoft About the AI Watching Them [video]
    www.youtube.com
  • 3d
    Microsoft pulls out of UK's largest AI data centre
    www.bbc.co.uk
  • 3d
    Amazon Jumps 5% as Morgan Stanley Names It Top Pick on Faster AWS Growth; Microsoft and Alphabet Edge Higher
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 3d
    Microsoft, Alphabet, Goldman object to tokenized stocks traded on OKXICE venue
    Ledger Insights
  • 3d
    Microsoft unveils tools to monitor and corral rogue AI agents
    GeekWire
  • 4d
    Microsoft drops AI datacentre project in Essex over power supply concerns
    www.theguardian.com
  • 5d
    Not Alphabet. Not Microsoft. This Is the Cloud Stock I'd Buy With $5,000 Right Now.
    Yahoo Finance
  • 6d
    Microsoft is the only hyperscaler not forecast to dip into negative FCF in the next year (MSFT:NASDAQ)
    Seeking Alpha
  • 6d
    The Next $5 Trillion Dollar Company: Alphabet or Microsoft?
    AOL.com
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
NVIDIA21 · 1
Apple11 · 0

6 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 8 options

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will SpaceX be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Microsoft · Buy YesOption 4 of 8

Polymarket price · live

Yes6¢
No98¢
Trade on Polymarket

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Before you decide · Microsoft

  • News34 today · latest 2h
  • AI analysts4% · level
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.