MarketsTech
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 1h ago
37% chance
+2.0 pts 24hNews 40 todayNews
- match: NVIDIA
- match: NVIDIA
- match: NVIDIA
- match: NVIDIA
- match: NVIDIA
- match: NVIDIA
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if NVIDIA is the second-largest company in the world by market cap at the market close on 2026-12-31, as shown by a consensus of credible reporting. Otherwise it resolves No, including if NVIDIA is first or third or lower.
Latest
2026-10 (early): Third-party tables (AlphaSense, Motley Fool, InvestingCube) list Nvidia first at about $5.65T (as of Oct 2), then Apple at about $4.87T, Alphabet at about $4.16-4.3T and Microsoft at about $3.84T. Another summary says Nvidia is roughly $5.3T on more recent data.
www.alpha-sense.com +1Sources disagree on who is first now. The July CNBC piece says Apple overtook Nvidia, while the October tables show Nvidia first. The rank order of Nvidia and Apple at 2026-10-14 is unconfirmed. Both are above $5T, and Alphabet is about $4.3T in third.
www.cnbc.com +4The rule names no single data source, only 'a consensus of credible reporting'.
www.cnbc.com +4
What to watch next 2026-12-31 market close; the most valuable company ranking is what settles it.
Full research
Earlier
Search summaries put Apple's market cap at about $5.005T after a record close of $342.96. They describe this as Apple's first close above $5T (source: search summary of CNBC/Yahoo Finance reports; not checked at the primary pages).
www.cnbc.com +1CNBC reported Apple touched a $5T market cap for the first time (source: CNBC).
www.cnbc.com +1CNBC headline: 'Apple dethrones Nvidia as world's most valuable company, ending the chipmaker's long run at the top' (source: CNBC).
www.cnbc.com +1
Research, not advice.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
