MarketsAI
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 3h ago
17% chance
−0.5 pts 24hAI analysts 11% (7)Top traders 1 Yes · 2 NoNews 40 todayOpening price · no trades yet
News
- match: Chinese
- match: Chinese
- match: Chinese
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- match: Chinese
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AI research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if a formal US government action, such as legislation, an executive order or an export control, causes general public access within the US to a flagship model from DeepSeek, Baidu, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot, MiniMax, Tencent or Zhipu to be removed, for any length of time, by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET. Removal from a single channel, or an action that has not yet removed access, does not count.
Latest
Search results show only government-device and procurement restrictions. Examples are Commerce Department agencies banning DeepSeek on government devices, state-level bans, and proposals such as the 'No Adversarial AI Act' and the 'No DeepSeek on Government Devices Act'. None of these removes gener…
aiweekly.co +12026 (date unclear): House Homeland Security and Select China committees were reported to be weighing procurement bans, contractor restrictions and formal risk communications on DeepSeek, Kimi and Qwen (aiweekly.co).
aiweekly.coCryptobriefing reported a the source market price of about 26% for US government restriction of access to Chinese AI models in 2026. The date of that price is unclear.
aiweekly.co +1
Full research
Earlier
Experts note First Amendment obstacles to banning open-weight models outright.
aiweekly.co +1I found no report of an enacted action that removes general public access.
aiweekly.co +1
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
11%
6 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
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Top traders
3 of the top 50 hold this market1 Yes · 2 No
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that directly has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major Chinese AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify. "Major Chinese AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: DeepSeek, Baidu (ERNIE), Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, MiniMax, Tencent (Hunyuan) and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify. The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major Chinese AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action. The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major Chinese model by the resolution date, will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
