MarketsEconomy
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN13 optionsResearch 6d ago
0 (0 bps) 97%1 (25 bps) <1%2 (50 bps) <1%4 (100 bps) <1%
13 options
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
4 (100 bps)<1%+0.1 pts—2 · 0
5 (125 bps)<1%——1 · 0
6 (150 bps)<1%——2 · 0
7 (175 bps)<1%——2 · 0
8 (200 bps)<1%——2 · 0
9 (225 bps)<1%——2 · 0
10 (250 bps)<1%——2 · 0
11 (275 bps)<1%——2 · 0
12+ (300+ bps)<1%——2 · 0
13 options trading.
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The AI analysts are reviewing this market. Usually within the hour.
News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
0 (0 bps)Yes TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 8 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1ratehikesratehikes: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2thursdaysthursdays: Tier 2, #49 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 8 · 2
1 (25 bps)Yes cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2forgetfuldoryforgetfuldory: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 · 1
2 (50 bps)Yes cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No Logan.Logan.: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2HolyMoses7HolyMoses7: Tier 2, #32 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 Logan.Logan.: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 · 1
4 (100 bps)Yes cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2Logan.Logan.: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
6 (150 bps)Yes cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2Logan.Logan.: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
7 (175 bps)Yes cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2Logan.Logan.: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
8 (200 bps)Yes cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2Logan.Logan.: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
9 (225 bps)Yes cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2Logan.Logan.: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
10 (250 bps)Yes cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2Logan.Logan.: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
11 (275 bps)Yes cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2Logan.Logan.: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
12+ (300+ bps)Yes cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2Logan.Logan.: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
3 (75 bps)Yes Logan.Logan.: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 Logan.Logan.: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
5 (125 bps)Yes cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- 3 (75 bps) resolves Yes if the number of Fed 25 bp rate cuts in 2026 equals that option's number. A cut of 1 to 24 bp counts as one cut, and a 50 bp cut counts as two. Emergency cuts count. The source is FOMC statements and the Fed's target rate page, and the market stays open through December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. An option resolves early to No once more cuts have occurred than that option's number.
- Watch out
- Cuts are counted in 25 bp units, but any cut of 1 to 24 bp counts as a full cut. Emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings also count.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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