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Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 3h ago
28% chance
— 24hAI analysts 22% (6)News
- match: Control
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AI research
What decides it
Resolves on the third-ranked company in the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) 'Labs' view with Style Control on, checked Nov 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, using the Lab Rank column. If that is ambiguous, labs are ordered by their best model, then by Arena score, then alphabetically; models marked 'AutoEval' are ignored.
Latest
LLMRun, using Arena's default style control with data through October 2026, lists Gemini 4 Argon High (Google) as top overall at 1525.4 and Moonshot's Kimi K3 as the top open model at 1488.1.
llmrun.devAn Arena board stamped Oct 2 showed gemini-4-argon-high first Overall at 1525 on 4,932 votes, tagged Preliminary, and claude-opus-4-6-high at 1505; OpenAI's GPT-6.1 Sol was #21 at 1483.
www.stephanmiller.comGoogle announced Gemini 4 'Argon', giving it to select cybersecurity partners with no timeline for public release.
www.khaleejtimes.com
Case for Yes
Google already sits above Anthropic (Argon 1525 vs Anthropic's 1505 on the Oct 2 board), so one more lab passing Anthropic would put it third; Meta's Muse Spark 1.2 xHigh scored 1498 in August, within about 10 points of Anthropic's best.
Case for No
On the Oct 2 board the best OpenAI model was #21 at 1483 and the top open model (Kimi K3) was about 1488, roughly 20 points below Anthropic's best; Anthropic held the top six spots on Sept 27; if Argon's preliminary score slips below Anthropic, Anthropic would be #1, also No.
What to watch next Whether Gemini 4 Argon's preliminary score holds as votes build; new OpenAI, Meta, xAI or Moonshot models entering the board; the Labs-view check at 12:00 PM ET on Nov 30.
Full research
What decides it
Resolves on the third-ranked company in the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) 'Labs' view with Style Control on, checked Nov 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, using the Lab Rank column. If that is ambiguous, labs are ordered by their best model, then by Arena score, then alphabetically; models marked 'AutoEval' are ignored. Yes needs exactly two labs ahead of Anthropic at the check; Anthropic at #1 or #2 is No.
Earlier
Claude Opus 5.5 (High) debuted #1 on Text Arena at a reported 1509, four points ahead of Claude Opus 4.6 (High); Anthropic held the first six positions in that snapshot.
www.remio.aiAggregator ToolCenter recorded Meta's Muse Spark 1.2 xHigh at 1498, #4 on the Arena text leaderboard; the page labels the score stale.
www.toolcenter.ai
Sources
- Remio: Claude Opus 5.5 Arena ranking hits No. 1 · www.remio.ai
- Stephan Miller: Model buzz roundup, week of 09/30 · www.stephanmiller.com
- Khaleej Times: Google announces Gemini 4 flagship AI model after months of delays · www.khaleejtimes.com
- LLMRun: LMArena Text Leaderboard · llmrun.dev
- ToolCenter: Meta Muse Spark 1.2 xHigh · www.toolcenter.ai
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
22%
6 pts below the market · 6 AI analysts
All 6, with track records
AI analysts
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
