MarketsAI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 2h ago
41% chance
— 24hAI analysts 38% (7)Opening price · no trades yet
News
- Google DeepMind and Singapore Government collaborate to build fine-tuned AI model for scam detectionmatch: AI · model
- match: Anthropic · model
- match: AI · model
- match: Anthropic · AI
- match: Anthropic · AI
- match: Anthropic · AI
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if the company owning the model ranked #1 on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall, style control off, 'Models' filter, no AutoEval models) at 12:00 PM ET on 2026-11-30 is Anthropic. Ties on rank are broken by unrounded Arena score, then by company name alphabetically.
Latest
The Manifold figures may come from the default leaderboard view. They may not match the style-control-off view the rules name, and I did not check this.
manifold.markets +1I could not load arena.ai directly (HTTP 403), so I have no first-hand reading of the resolution table.
manifold.markets +1A Manifold market creator's post (secondary source) put Google's gemini-4-argon-high at #1 with 1525 ±9 on about 4.9k votes. Five Anthropic models followed at 1501–1505, including claude-opus-4-6-high, claude-fable-5-high and claude-opus-5.5-high. The creator cautioned that the lead res…
manifold.markets +1
What to watch next Check time is 2026-11-30 12:00 PM ET. Before then, a Gemini 4 Argon score update (its ±9 band should narrow as votes accumulate) and any new Anthropic, OpenAI or xAI releases could change the top spo…
Full research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if the company owning the model ranked #1 on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall, style control off, 'Models' filter, no AutoEval models) at 12:00 PM ET on 2026-11-30 is Anthropic. Ties on rank are broken by unrounded Arena score, then by company name alphabetically. Otherwise it resolves No.
Earlier
On the same Manifold post, OpenAI's best model, gpt-5.6-sol-xhigh, was at #20 with 1484. The best xAI model was at #36. GPT-6 was not yet listed. (Manifold)
manifold.markets +1Anthropic held the top three spots: claude-fable-5 at 1507±5, claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 1505±4 and claude-opus-4-7-thinking at 1502±4. (search summary of Manifold/LMArena data)
manifold.markets +1
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
38%
3 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 40%
- 38%
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- 32%
- 38%
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
