MarketsAI
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 4h ago
72% chance
−1.0 pts 24hAI analysts 56% (7)Top traders 2 Yes · 1 NoNews 40 todayNews
- match: HIGH
- match: HIGH
- match: HIGH
- match: HIGH
- match: HIGH
- match: HIGH
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AI research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if Anthropic's NPM Price valuation (Nasdaq Private Market / SecondMarket data page) on any date from market creation to 2026-12-31 reaches or exceeds $1.75T. After an IPO, the IPO-price-implied valuation and the public market cap (highest regular-hours trading price times total outstanding common shares) also count.
Latest
2026-05: The latest priced primary round was the Series H at $965B post-money (Yahoo Finance, Tribune India).
finance.yahoo.comI did not retrieve the NPM page, so I have no latest NPM valuation.
finance.yahoo.com +1An IPO is reportedly targeted for November 2026, which would make post-IPO market cap count. Commentary mentions possible valuations up to $2T (GraniteShares, Gradually.ai), but no filing gives a price range.
graniteshares.com
What to watch next Possible IPO pricing in November 2026 (reported, unconfirmed).
Full research
Earlier
No documented financing or transaction at or above $1.75T found.
finance.yahoo.com +1
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
56%
16 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 48%
- 65%
- 45%
- 50%
- 68%
- 50%
- 65%
Top traders
3 of the top 50 hold this market2 Yes · 1 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
