MarketsAI
Best AI model on October 26?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN3 optionsResearch 7h ago
gemini-4-argon-high 98%Other 1%
3 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
3 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
gemini-4-argon-high98%91%−7
Other1%12%+11
claude-fable-5.1-max———
AI analysts' average · claude-fable-5.1-max
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Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
gemini-4-argon-highYes 0xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C110xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C11: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 0xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C110xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C11: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
2 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5.5-high” would be ranked ahead of “gemini-4-argon-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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