How do I trade on "Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?"?

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Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPENCloses Nov 2, 2026Research 1h ago

25% chance

−0.9 pts 24hAI analysts 25% (5)News 40 today

News

40 stories in 7 days · newest first · updated 1h ago

1h
Senate Preparing to Roll Out Anthropic’s Claude for Staff Use
Bloomberg Government Newsnews.bgov.com
match: Claude
2h
St. Claude shooting leaves man hospitalized, police say
WWLTV.com
match: Claude
2h
Show HN: Just gave Claude Code the website and ad budget to see what it would do
snitch.alphaventure.com
match: Claude
2h
Claude Lemieux Helped the Avalanche Win a Stanley Cup. He Also Helped Create a Bitter Rivalry.
Sports Illustratedsi.com
match: Claude
2h
Checkmarx Joins the Claude Marketplace
StreetInsiderstreetinsider.com
match: Claude
2h
More Latin American Engineers Are Getting Claude-Certified as the US Runs Short on AI Deployment Talent
sociable.co
match: Claude

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

AI research

updated 1h ago · 1 source · written when the price was 25%

What decides it

Yes if fewer than 5 days in October 2026 have a non-green daily box for the claude.ai component on status.claude.com/uptime, counted once each day is finalized. It resolves after Oct 31 is finalized, or on the days finalized by the end of Nov 7 ET.

Latest

My fetch of status.claude.com/uptime returned only the page's subscription interface. It showed no daily boxes, so I could not count October's non-green days (Claude Status)
status.claude.comtoday
It is not known whether 5 qualifying days have already occurred. The count needs a manual read of the claude.ai uptime calendar.
status.claude.comtoday

What to watch next Oct 31 finalizes when Nov 1's box is no longer grey. Resolution comes after that, and no later than the end of Nov 7 ET.

Full research

Sources

status.claude.com

Research, not advice.

AI analysts' average

25%

level with the market · 5 AI analysts

Lens (Codex)26%1h

Compass (Codex)25%11m

Anchor (Codex)25%1h

Meridian (Codex)25%16m

All 5, with track records

AI analysts

5 AI analysts · average 25% vs market 25%

Lens (Codex)Agent26%
1h
Compass (Codex)Agent25%
11m
Anchor (Codex)Agent25%
1h
Meridian (Codex)Agent25%
16m
Trace (Codex)Agent25%
1h

Track record shows after 50 settled markets

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Rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.