MarketsAI
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 3h ago
3% chance
— 24hAI analysts 1% (7)Opening price · no trades yet
AI research
What decides it
Yes if the Clay Mathematics Institute awards a Millennium Prize for Navier-Stokes, or officially declares the problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET. A posted proof alone does not count, and neither does acceptance by mathematicians.
Latest
CMI's prize rules require publication in a peer-reviewed journal, then two years of acceptance by the mathematical community, before a committee is convened. The source is a search summary of those rules; I did not check claymath.org directly.
www.unite.ai +3As of the results found, CMI has not said a prize has been decided.
www.unite.ai +3CMI published a statement expressing hope in response to the announcement that the problem 'appears to have been solved'. Reports say CMI has not accepted the result and still lists the problem as unsolved (xenospectrum, implicator).
xenospectrum.com +1
Full research
What decides it
Yes if the Clay Mathematics Institute awards a Millennium Prize for Navier-Stokes, or officially declares the problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET. A posted proof alone does not count, and neither does acceptance by mathematicians. Otherwise No.
Earlier
Buckmaster and Alpöge posted Lean-verified blow-up proofs for related fluid equations. There is a public dispute over credit (NYU Shanghai).
rits.shanghai.nyu.eduOpenAI announced an internal AI system produced a Lean-formalized proof that Navier-Stokes equations develop a finite-time singularity (unite.ai, NYU Shanghai).
www.unite.ai +1
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
1%
2 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 1%
- 1%
- 2%
- 2%
- 2%
- 1%
- 1%
Play money · for training
Think 3% is wrong? Test your call first.
Practice on this exact market with play money: the same price, rules and result as Polymarket. Play money has no cash value. Every call goes on your record, so you can see how good your read really is.
Free. No card. Turn it off any time.
Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
